Canola and other crops fall on improving weather, increased US cash sales

Canola posted the biggest one day loss in weeks on Tuesday, weighed down by a falling American crop market and a forecast for drier weather.

Most traded January closed at $513.40, down $8.90 or 1.7 percent.

It was a turn around Tuesday with traders shifting their focus from the strong U.S. crop export picture back to the big U.S. crops.

American farmers are running out of storage room and starting to sell more on the cash market, pushing down the cash price and widening the basis. That was reflected back into the futures market today.

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November soybeans fell 1.8 percent. December soy oil fell 0.9 percent.

DRIER FORECAST

Although there was rain in central Saskatchewan and other areas today, a factor weighing on canola might be the forecast for a string of warm sunny days later this week and into the following week. Temperatures fall by about Rememberance Day in the extended forecast, but the possibility of precipitation remains low up to mid month.

This drier weather could allow a pick up in the pace of the western Canada harvest, which has seen little progress for weeks.

Also, canola’s price was starting to close in on the highs posted earlier this year and the highs of 2015 and so was running into technical headwinds.

Generally, a bull market like the one canola has enjoyed in recent weeks needs a constant infusion of bullish news to keep it going. However, there is really no new news and so the trade is defaulting back to a concentration on the big American crops.

The USDA yesterday said the American soybean harvest is 87 percent complete and the corn harvest is 75 percent complete. That is about normal for this time of year.

Some traders might be adjusting positions ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand report. Some think the USDA might increase its estimate of the U.S. soybean yield.

Malaysian palm export data for October showed exports down 6.4 percent from September.

Corn and wheat fell. Minneapolis wheat fell more than Kansas or Chicago, perhaps reflecting ideas that the Canadian harvest might pick up momentum because of the drier forecast.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 19 cents to US$46.67 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US74.74 cents, up from 74.61 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3379.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 8.95 points, or 0.06 percent, at 14,778.32.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 105.32 points, or 0.58 percent, to 18,037.1, the S&P 500 lost 14.43 points, or 0.68 percent, to 2,111.72 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 35.56 points, or 0.69 percent, to 5,153.58.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 16 503.90s -13.70 -2.65%

Canola Jan 17 513.40s -8.90 -1.70%

Canola Mar 17 518.10s -8.30 -1.58%

Canola May 17 519.90s -7.60 -1.44%

Canola Jul 17 518.90s -7.10 -1.35%

Milling Wheat Dec 16 235.00s -2.00 -0.84%

Milling Wheat Mar 17 240.00s -2.00 -0.83%

Milling Wheat May 17 244.00s -2.00 -0.81%

Durum Wheat Dec 16 313.00s unch unch

Durum Wheat Mar 17 318.00s unch unch

Durum Wheat May 17 322.00s unch unch

Barley Dec 16 132.50s unch unch

Barley Mar 17 134.50s unch unch

Barley May 17 135.50s unch unch

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2016 984.25 -18.00 -1.80%

Soybeans Jan 2017 993.25 -18.50 -1.83%

Soybeans Mar 2017 1000.00 -18.50 -1.82%

Soybeans May 2017 1006.50 -17.50 -1.71%

Soybeans Jul 2017 1011.50 -17.00 -1.65%

Soybeans Aug 2017 1009.75 -16.25 -1.58%

Soybean Meal Dec 2016 309.50 -6.60 -2.09%

Soybean Meal Jan 2017 311.30 -6.60 -2.08%

Soybean Meal Mar 2017 313.10 -6.50 -2.03%

Soybean Oil Dec 2016 34.85 -0.32 -0.91%

Soybean Oil Jan 2017 35.09 -0.30 -0.85%

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 35.27 -0.26 -0.73%

Corn Dec 2016 349.00 -5.75 -1.62%

Corn Mar 2017 357.75 -5.00 -1.38%

Corn May 2017 365.00 -4.50 -1.22%

Corn Jul 2017 371.75 -4.50 -1.20%

Corn Sep 2017 378.50 -4.00 -1.05%

Oats Dec 2016 219.50 -1.00 -0.45%

Oats Mar 2017 216.50 -2.75 -1.25%

Oats May 2017 216.25 -0.75 -0.35%

Oats Jul 2017 217.50 -1.00 -0.46%

Oats Sep 2017 212.75 -1.00 -0.47%

Wheat Dec 2016 414.25 -2.00 -0.48%

Wheat Mar 2017 431.50 -2.25 -0.52%

Wheat May 2017 446.00 -2.25 -0.50%

Wheat Jul 2017 459.50 -2.00 -0.43%

Wheat Sep 2017 474.75 -1.00 -0.21%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2016 519.50 -7.25 -1.38%

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 525.75 -7.75 -1.45%

Spring Wheat May 2017 532.75 -7.50 -1.39%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 539.00 -7.00 -1.28%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 546.50 -6.25 -1.13%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2016 413.75 -1.00 -0.24%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 431.50 -1.00 -0.23%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 443.50 -1.25 -0.28%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 455.00 -1.25 -0.27%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 469.25 -1.25 -0.27%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2016 105.52 +2.19 +2.12%

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 106.45 +2.33 +2.24%

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 105.75 +1.97 +1.90%

Feeder Cattle (P) Nov 2016 126.18 +4.33 +3.55%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 120.42 +4.42 +3.81%

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 116.68 +4.41 +3.93%

Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2016 46.45 -1.50 -3.13%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 52.70 -1.93 -3.53%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 60.20 -1.85 -2.98%

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