Crop tour says yield potential good; futures little changed

The CWB/Cereals North America crop tour has published is potential Prairie average yield forecasts and it points to a good crop overall except for fields wiped out by excess moisture.

The spring wheat forecast is 43.1 bushels per acre. That is well down from last year’s record in the region of 53 bu. per acre, but slightly better than the 2008-12 regional average of 41.4 bu. per acre.

The durum forecast is 48.1 bu. per acre, about the same as last year’s 48.4 and well above the 2008-12 average of 36.34.

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The canola forecast is 34.3 bu. per acre down from last year’s 40 bu., but a little better than the 2008-12 average of 33.14 bu.

The CWB emphasized that these are only potential yields. The crop is a long way from harvest yet.

Our reporter Brian Cross is at the conference and filed these notes:

Overall, crop looks reasonably “solid”with exception of flood zone. Lower yield could result in higher quality, higher protein, the conference reported.

The CWB also estimated the amount of land unseeded or lost to flooding was 3.5 to four million acres.

Durum development is well behind normal

Durum protein is likely to end up similar to last year, depending on weather between now and finish.

Spring wheat staging: eastern prairies 7-10 days behind. Up to two weeks in some areas. A week or less in much of Alta.

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Here is the closing market report for today.

It was another day when crop futures changed by only a few cents per bushel.

Canola closed slightly lower with November at $441.30, down $1.50 per tonne.

Weather for spring-sown crops in North America remains fairly good. This map from the U.S. weather service showing the seven day forecast indicates rain for the U.S. Midwest but not much rain for most of the Canadian Prairies.

Rain over western Europe over the past couple of week is hurting crop quality and slowing harvest. The percentage of the wheat crop that grades feed is expected to increase, reducing the amount of grain that the region can export.

That is a bit supportive of international wheat prices, and it helped lift wheat futures today. But the benefit is offset by a larger than expected and good quality harvest in Russia and Ukraine.

The rain in Western Europe is also trimming the quality and quantity of rapeseed, however, production overall is expected to be similar to last year.

As July comes to an end, it will be remembered as a downer for crop prices.

Soybeans fell 12.6 percent in July, their biggest monthly decline since September 2011. Corn was down 15.8 percent for the month, while wheat dropped 6.1 percent.

Monsoon rain is falling in key pulse producing states of Indian, weighing down the domestic price of the grain today.

Most stock markets around the world fell today as a number of huge companies including Exxon, Samsung and Adidas announced disappointing quarterly profits or warned of lower full year profits.

Markets might be more trigger-happy on days like today because stock markets are at or near record highs have a long bull market and many believe a correction is in the cards.

ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014 441.30 -1.50 -0.34%

Canola Jan 2015 445.40 -1.00 -0.22%

Canola Mar 2015 446.00 -0.90 -0.20%

Canola May 2015 442.30 -0.90 -0.20%

Canola Jul 2015 438.10 -0.70 -0.16%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 188.00 +1.00 +0.53%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 194.00 +1.00 +0.52%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015 195.00 +1.00 +0.52%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 250.00 unch0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 256.00 unch0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015 257.00 unch0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 137.50 unch0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 139.50 unch0.00%

Barley Mar 2015 140.50 unch0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 20141224.5 +4 +0.33%

Soybeans Sep 20141099.75 -2.5 -0.23%

Soybeans Nov 20141082 +0.75 +0.07%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1090.25 +1.25 +0.11%

Soybeans Mar 20151097.5 +1.75 +0.16%

Soybeans May 20151104 +1.5+0.14%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 391.3 +3.7+0.95%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014 362 +0.5+0.14%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014 351.8 +0.4+0.11%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 36.11 +0.06 +0.17%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014 36.16 +0.01 +0.03%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014 36.22 +0.01 +0.03%

Corn Sep 2014357 -4.75 -1.31%

Corn Dec 2014367 -4.5 -1.21%

Corn Mar 2015379.5 -4 -1.04%

Corn May 2015387.75 -3.75 -0.96%

Corn Jul 2015 395.25 -4 -1.00%

Oats Sep 2014354.5 +1 +0.28%

Oats Dec 2014330.5 +0.75 +0.23%

Oats Mar 2015318.75 +1.5+0.47%

Oats May 2015309 +1.5+0.49%

Oats Jul 2015 309.5 +0.5+0.16%

Wheat Sep 2014 530.25 +3 +0.57%

Wheat Dec 2014 550.25 +0.75 +0.14%

Wheat Mar 2015 572.25 -0.5 -0.09%

Wheat May 2015 586 -0.75 -0.13%

Wheat Jul 2015 595.75 -1.75 -0.29%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 616 +3.25 +0.53%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 626.25 +3.25 +0.52%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 638.75 +2.5+0.39%

Spring Wheat May 2015 646.25 +2 +0.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 654 +2 +0.31%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 616 +3.25 +0.53%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 626.25 +3.25 +0.52%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 638.75 +2.5+0.39%

Spring Wheat May 2015 646.25 +2 +0.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 654 +2 +0.31%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014 625.75 +8.75 +1.42%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014 639 +6.75 +1.07%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015 644.25 +4.5+0.70%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 647.5 +4 +0.62%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015637.75 +4.5+0.71%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell $2.10 at $98.17 US per barrel.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 91.83 cents US, up from 91.67 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0890 Cdn.

In unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 194.09 points, 1.25 percent, at 15,330.73.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 317.06 points, or 1.88 percent, to 16,563.3. The S&P 500 lost 39.4 points, or 2 percent, to 1,930.67, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 93.13 points or 2.09 percent, to 4,369.77.

For the month, the Dow was down 1.6 percent, the S&P 500 was down 1.5 percent, and the Nasdaq was down 0.9 percent.