Crop traders pushed grain prices lower following Wednesday’s USDA report. Oilseeds initially rose a little but closed mostly lower.
July canola closed at $602.50, down $6.10 and November closed at $556.80, down $1.30.
While July canola futures have been falling, the best basis as reported by ICE Futures Canada has been improving and yesterday was $20.16 over the July contract.
Traders were surprised that the U.S. Department of Agriculture left U.S. corn acreage unchanged at 97.3 million acres despite the wet seeding season. Analysts, on average had expected a decline of 1.5 million acres.
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USDA will survey farmers about seeded acreage for its June 30 plantings report and at that point might change its sowing number.
USDA did lower its corn yield projection to 156.5 bushels per acre. The crop was estimated at 14 billion bu., down one percent from May. Traders on average had expected a 2.2 percent decline.
Ending stocks were estimated at 1.95 billion bu., down from two billion in May, but still the largest in eight years. The trade expected 1.795 billion.
Ending stocks for the current crop year are estimated at 769 million bu. The trade expected 759 million.
Soybean acreage was unchanged and production was estimated at 3.39 billion bu., unchanged from May. The report was seen as slightly bullish for oilseeds because traders had expected some corn intended acres would go into soybeans but that didn’t happen.
Also, USDA lowered its estimate of Brazil’s 2012-13 soybean harvest to 82 million tonnes from its May estimate of 83.5 million.
But oilseeds ended lower as traders returned their focus to favourable crop growing weather.
The wheat numbers in the USDA report were bearish for domestic crop but bullishi for international production, with cuts to FSU and EU production.
USDA sees all US wheat production at 2.08 billion bu., up from 2.06 billion in the May report. Despite the weather challenges to the hard red winter wheat crop early in the season, recent better weather has improved the outlook.
USDA forecast hard red winter production, at 781 million bu., up two percent from last month. The trade on average had expected 752 million.
Soft red winter, at 509 million bu., is up two percent from May.
White Winter, at 219 million bu., is up one percent from last month.
World wheat production was pegged at 695.86 million tonnes, down from the May outlook of 701.1 million, due mainly to reduced forecast for Russia, Ukraine and the European Union.
• The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) today forecast that country’s wheat 2013-14 production at 25.4 million tonnes, up two percent from a March forecast and well above last year’s 22.1 million tonnes,
Production is expected to be boosted by strong production from Western Australia, the country’s largest grain producing state, ABARES said.
Production in Western Australia was forecast to rise 29 percent to 8.8 million tonnes, as the state recovers from dry conditions last year.
ABARES raised its canola crop outlook to 3.23 million tonnes, up nearly 10 percent from its March estimate, even though dry weather at planting time prevented farmers from completing intended acreage.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2013 602.50 -6.10 -1.00%
Canola Nov 2013 556.80 -1.30 -0.23%
Canola Jan 2014 559.00 -1.20 -0.21%
Canola Mar 2014 555.30 -1.70 -0.31%
Canola May 2014 551.30 -0.90 -0.16%
Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 299.40 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 199.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2013 1540.75 +0.25 +0.02%
Soybeans Aug 2013 1445.25 -5.5 -0.38%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1358.75 -7 -0.51%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1314.25 -12.75 -0.96%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1320.5 -13.5 -1.01%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1320.75 -13 -0.97%
Soybean Meal Jul 2013 461.4 -2 -0.43%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 429.6 -3.5 -0.81%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 410.4 -4.2 -1.01%
Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.11 +0.07 +0.15%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.07 +0.11 +0.23%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 47.9 +0.19 +0.40%
Corn Jul 2013 650.75 -8.75 -1.33%
Corn Sep 2013 575 -8.5 -1.46%
Corn Dec 2013 537.5 -13.25 -2.41%
Corn Mar 2014 548.25 -13.25 -2.36%
Corn May 2014 555.25 -13.5 -2.37%
Oats Jul 2013 403.25 unch 0.00%
Oats Sep 2013 390.25 -3.5 -0.89%
Oats Dec 2013 382.5 -1.5 -0.39%
Oats Mar 2014 385.75 -0.75 -0.19%
Oats May 2014 388 -0.75 -0.19%
Wheat Jul 2013 683 -13.75 -1.97%
Wheat Sep 2013 691 -14 -1.99%
Wheat Dec 2013 705.25 -14.25 -1.98%
Wheat Mar 2014 719 -14.75 -2.01%
Wheat May 2014 729.25 -14.75 -1.98%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2013 806.25 -9.5 -1.16%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 790 -10 -1.25%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 797.25 -9.25 -1.15%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 810 -9.75 -1.19%
Spring Wheat May 2014 816.25 -9 -1.09%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 716.5 -13.5 -1.85%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 720.75 -14.5 -1.97%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 738.75 -15.25 -2.02%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 751.25 -16.25 -2.12%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 759.5 -16.5 -2.13%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 50 cents at $95.88 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 98.02 cents US, down from 98.14 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0202 Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 113.68 points, or 0.9, at 12,109.89.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 126.79 points or 0.84 percent, to close at 14,995.23.
The S&P 500 fell 13.61 points or 0.84 percent, to 1,612.52. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC lost 36.52 points or 1.06 percent, to end at 3,400.43.
The S&P 500 has fallen 3.4 percent from its record closing high of 1,669.16 set on May 21.
