Tuesday’s crop futures markets did a flip-flop from Monday, with wheat and corn being the gainers and soybeans the loser.
Canola was almost unchanged and oats was the biggest price winner overall, gaining 10 cents per bushel on the nearby December contract.
Crops were the strongest class in the commodities complex Tuesday, although it was a flattish day, with a slight downward tone. Equity markets too were slightly down, with the big stock averages giving up the big round number records that so enticed market watchers and headline writers on Monday.
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December oats added to its inversion, leaping over 10 cents to $3.54 per bushel compared to March 2014 climbing only four cents to $3.25. That’s an inversion and a price that few farmers can take advantage of because it exists mostly in the futures contract delivery zone, not in the cash market, and it’s presently difficult for anyone to get physical oats into that area.
While crop futures were slightly up Tuesday and slightly down Monday, a pall of negativity hangs over everything.
Headlines like “I Remain Bearish The Grain Market” on market commentaries sum up the general feeling that the end of the bull market era of crop prices might be nigh and sub-$4 corn prices might be coming. Since corn was the main driver of the long bull market in crops, any psychologically damaging levels help cement the idea that a bear market is being born.
Contrarians will note that this is the typical time of the yearly lows in grain prices, when harvest pressure is greatest, crop production estimates have been increased and there is the least physical shortness of stocks in the calendar year.
Perhaps with such universal bearishness, the market could be exhibiting its bottom, many crop growers will hope.
Late afternoon Tuesday, the Standard and Poor’s 500 stood at 1,787, pulling back from the 1,800 round number record of intraday Monday, and the Dow had fallen from yesterday’s intraday post-16,000 record to 15,966.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jan 2014 483.30 +0.10 +0.02%
Canola Mar 2014 492.70 +0.30 +0.06%
Canola May 2014 500.40 -0.10 -0.02%
Canola Jul 2014 506.50 unch 0.00%
Canola Nov 2014 509.80 -0.20 -0.04%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 216.00 +1.00 +0.47%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 227.00 +1.00 +0.44%
Milling Wheat May 2014 235.00 +1.00 +0.43%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 2014 1276.25 -11.25 -0.87%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1264.25 -9 -0.71%
Soybeans May 2014 1252.75 -6.75 -0.54%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1249.25 -5.75 -0.46%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1231.5 -3.75 -0.30%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1185 -2 -0.17%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 408.9 -6.9 -1.66%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 404.9 -5.6 -1.36%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 397.9 -3.7 -0.92%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 39.99 -0.12 -0.30%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 40.24 -0.13 -0.32%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 40.64 -0.13 -0.32%
Corn Dec 2013 417.75 +5.75 +1.40%
Corn Mar 2014 426.25 +5.25 +1.25%
Corn May 2014 434.75 +5.5 +1.28%
Corn Jul 2014 441.75 +5 +1.14%
Corn Sep 2014 447.75 +4.75 +1.07%
Oats Dec 2013 354.5 +10.5 +3.05%
Oats Mar 2014 325.5 +4.25 +1.32%
Oats May 2014 315.25 +3 +0.96%
Oats Jul 2014 312 +3 +0.97%
Oats Sep 2014 312.5 +3 +0.97%
Wheat Dec 2013 650.25 +8 +1.25%
Wheat May 2014 663.25 +7.25 +1.11%
Wheat Jul 2014 659.5 +6.75 +1.03%
Wheat Sep 2014 667.25 +6.5 +0.98%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 697.75 +2.5 +0.36%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 707.25 +2.25 +0.32%
Spring Wheat May 2014 714.5 +1.75 +0.25%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 721.5 +2.5 +0.35%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 724.25 +1.75 +0.24%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 698.5 +4.5 +0.65%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 701.5 +5 +0.72%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 702 +5.5 +0.79%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 692.75 +4.75 +0.69%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 702.5 +4 +0.57%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 31 cents at $93.34 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.55 cents US, down from 95.90 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0466 Cdn.
