Bumper U.S. harvest prospect trumps bad Canadian weather

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Published: September 9, 2014

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Snow, frost, rain, lodging, disease — all have or will hammer Western Canadian crops this week but that was not enough to keep canola futures from falling on Tuesday.

Canola followed soybeans and soy oil lower, with November falling $5 a tonne or 11 cents a bushel to $9.45 per bu. or $416.50 a tonne.

The soy complex dropped on expectations of U.S. Department of Agriculture will increase its production outlook in its monthly report Thursday.

Also worries about frost in the United States receded and the start of soybean harvest in southern areas provided much needed new crop supply to crushers.

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November soybeans fell below $10 per bushel for the first time since August 2010.

The USDA’s weekly crop conditions report Monday afternoon kept corn and soybeans ratings at unusually favourable levels this week, maintaining the perception that American farmers will harvest record large bumper crops.

Private forecasters have been raising their outlooks for U.S. yields and production.

Grain prices are also under pressure

Farmers in large parts of Alberta and some in southwest

Saskatchewan saw snow Monday that tangled crops. That moisture and rain elsewhere is delaying harvest.

Temperatures in large parts of the Prairies are expected to drop below freezing tonight and be even colder on Wednesday night, Thursday morning, with Red Deer, Alta., expected to be among the coldest places, hitting a low of -7 C.

Australia’s official government forecaster has trimmed the size of its crop forecasts a little from the June outlook, but the declines are not enough to effect global grain prices.

ICE Futures Canada raised the value of its durum contract on Monday by $20 a tonne and lifted it by a further $14.80 today, reflecting good demand for quality durum. Europe had problems with its durum crop and now Canada and the U.S. have had problems with rain at harvest.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Nov 2014       416.50       -5.00       -1.19%

Canola Jan 2015       421.30       -4.90       -1.15%

Canola Mar 2015       426.70       -4.90       -1.14%

Canola May 2015       430.80       -4.50       -1.03%

Canola Jul 2015       434.50       -4.00       -0.91%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       196.00       -2.00       -1.01%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014       202.00       -2.00       -0.98%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015       210.00       -2.00       -0.94%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       284.80       +14.80       +5.48%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014       290.80       +14.80       +5.36%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015       291.80       +14.80       +5.34%

 

Barley Oct 2014       124.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Dec 2014       126.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Mar 2015       127.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 2014       1076.5       -14.25       -1.31%

Soybeans Nov 2014       992.75       -15.75       -1.56%

Soybeans Jan 2015       999.25       -16.25       -1.60%

Soybeans Mar 2015       1005       -17       -1.66%

Soybeans May 2015       1011.25       -16.5       -1.61%

Soybeans Jul 2015       1017.5       -15.75       -1.52%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 2014       453.7       +7.5       +1.68%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014       352.4       -0.7       -0.20%

Soybean Meal Dec 2014       338.7       -3.7       -1.08%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 2014       31.59       -0.44       -1.37%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014       31.56       -0.4       -1.25%

Soybean Oil Dec 2014       31.72       -0.42       -1.31%

 

Corn Sep 2014       336.25       -3       -0.88%

Corn Dec 2014       344.25       -4       -1.15%

Corn Mar 2015       357.25       -4       -1.11%

Corn May 2015       365.5       -4.25       -1.15%

Corn Jul 2015       372.75       -4       -1.06%

 

Oats Sep 2014       379       +2       +0.53%

Oats Dec 2014       349       +2       +0.58%

Oats Mar 2015       331.5       -1       -0.30%

Oats May 2015       322.75       -2.5       -0.77%

Oats Jul 2015       321       -3.5       -1.08%

 

Wheat Sep 2014       527.5       -6       -1.12%

Wheat Dec 2014       527.5       -6       -1.12%

Wheat Mar 2015       544       -6.75       -1.23%

Wheat May 2015       555       -7.5       -1.33%

Wheat Jul 2015       564.5       -7.5       -1.31%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       624.25       -5.75       -0.91%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       605.25       -5.5       -0.90%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       619.75       -6       -0.96%

Spring Wheat May 2015       629.5       -6       -0.94%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       637       -6.75       -1.05%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014       613       -12       -1.92%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014       623       -6       -0.95%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       629.25       -5.75       -0.91%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       631.75       -5.5       -0.86%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       620.25       -4.75       -0.76%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 9 cents at $92.75 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.81 cents US, down from 91.47 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1012 Cdn.

In unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index rose 27.42 points or 0.18 percent to 15,536.81.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 97.62 points or 0.57 percent, to 17,013.8, the S&P 500 dropped 13.11 points or 0.65 percent, to 1,988.43 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 40.00 points or 0.87 percent, to 4,552.29.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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