SAO PAULO (Reuters) — Brazilian government crop supply agency Conab on Tuesday cut its forecast for the 2014-15 soybean harvest to 93.3 million tonnes from its February outlook of 94.6 million tonnes, reducing estimates for planted area as well as yield.
Conab’s previous estimates had been above private forecasts that are now consolidating around 93 million tonnes with the crop more than 40 percent harvested.
Conab reduced its estimated crop area for soybeans to 77.3 million acres from 77.8 million acres last month. The agency cut its average yield forecast to 2.976 tonnes per hectare from 3.002 tonnes in February, its monthly report said.
Still seen at a record well above last year’s 86.1 million tonnes, the soybean crop will contribute to an expected surge in global supplies that has driven down prices.
May soybeans were down 0.5 percent, paring losses slightly after Conab’s data and ahead of a global report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Conab said a two-week truck strike that blocked key agricultural roads nationwide last month had not hurt the harvest in top-growing state Mato Grosso, where farmers had adequate diesel stocks. Some farmers reported sending soybeans north to Santarem when roads to the south were blocked, the agency said.
The strike did slow harvesting in the south, where more roads were blocked longer. The strike also slowed the delivery of beans to co-operatives for cleaning and storage there, Conab said.
The agency estimated Brazil would export 46.8 million tonnes of soybeans from this crop, down from expectations of 47.8 million tonnes last month. Brazil is likely to lose its spot as top global soy exporter to the United States this season.
Domestic crushing is expected to rise 11.4 percent from 2014 to 41 million tonnes this year after the government increased the amount of biodiesel required to be blended in diesel fuel, Conab said. That should leave soy carryover stocks of 4.77 million tonnes.
Conab held its overall corn estimate nearly steady at 78.2 million tonnes compared with 78.4 million tonnes a month earlier, estimating a first, summer harvest of 29.7 million tonnes and a second, winter crop of 48.5 million tonnes.
Conab also held its estimate of the now-harvested 2014 wheat crop at 5.9 million tonnes. It also said Brazil would probably produce a 2014-15 cotton lint crop of 1.5 million tonnes, down from 1.73 million tonnes grown in 2013-14.
