Bearish USDA report washes over Prairie weather problems

By D’Arce McMillan

Saskatoon newsroom

Flooded field and squishy roads on the eastern Prairies and a bearish USDA report pushed and pulled July and November canola in different directions Monday.

July rose a little on Prairie weather problems but November fell after the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast U.S. soybean acres at a higher than expected record of 84.8 million acres.

November canola closed down 2.16 percent, November soybeans closed down 5.76 percent, December corn fell 4.92 percent and December spring wheat fell 2.38 percent, with the decline there lessened by the worries about excess rain in Canada and North Dakota.

Read Also

U.S. livestock: Feeders continue to fall; live cattle level out

Chicago live cattle futures leveled out to finish on either side of unchanged, Tuesday, after days of precipitous declines. Feeders…

With many areas of eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba receiving 150 millimetres of rain or more over the weekend, the number of acres of canola that will be harvested this fall will be significantly less than the canola seeded area reported by Statistics Canada on Friday.

Other crops in the region will also suffer from the excess moisture and delayed maturity.

Here is a map showing rainfall totals for the seven days ending June 29.

This map shows percentage of normal rain since the start of the growing year April 1. Most of Saskatchewan and western Manitoba have had 150 percent or more of longer term average.

The good news is that much warmer weather is in the forecast for the Prairies with temperatures rising above 25 C by midweek.

The United States seeded acreage and stocks reports were bearish to grain prices.

USDA pegged soybean area at 84.8 million acres, higher than the highest pre report estimate in a Reuters poll of traders and analysts. The area is a record and up almost 11 percent from last year’s 76.533 million acres.

USDA sees corn area at 91.6 million acres, in line with the pre report average guess of 91.725 million.

All wheat is 56.5 million acres, up a bit from pre report average estimate of 55.82 million.

Of that, 12.71 million acres is spring wheat, up from the pre report estimate of 11.86 million.

About the only bullish number in the USDA report was for durum. Its seeded area came in at 1.469 million acres, steady with last year but lower than the pre report estimate of 1.79 million acres.

The soybean acreage number sets up a potential U.S. crop of 3.8 billion bushels, far above the previous high of 3.3 billion bu. and the current forecast of 3.6 billion, using USDA’s June yield projection of 45.3 bu. per acre.

USDA’s corn planting forecast of 91.6 million acres implies a crop of almost 13.9 billion bu., just below the record, using a projected yield of 165.3 bu. per acre.

U.S. seeded oats area is seen at 3.027 million acres, little changed from last year’s 3.01 million.

Canola area is pegged at 1.753 million acres, up from last year’s 1.348 million and up from the March forecast of 1.737 million, but almost steady with the acreage in 2012.

The June 1 stocks report was also bearish.

Corn stocks were 3.85 billion bu., up 39 percent from a year ago, and above the trade guess of 3.72 billion.

Soybean stocks were 405 million bu., above the average trade guess of 378 million.

Wheat stocks at 590 million bu. were close to the trade guess of 598 million.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2014 487.30 +1.30 +0.27%

Canola Nov 2014 457.30 -10.10 -2.16%

Canola Jan 2015 460.20 -10.20 -2.17%

Canola Mar 2015 460.70 -9.60 -2.04%

Canola May 2015 459.80 -9.00 -1.92%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014 194.00 -6.00 -3.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014 195.00 -6.00 -2.99%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014 199.00 -6.00 -2.93%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014 239.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014 230.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014 232.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2014 125.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2014 132.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2014 134.50 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2014 1400.5 -31.5 -2.20%

Soybeans Aug 2014 1329.75 -48.25 -3.50%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1193.75 -72.25 -5.71%

Soybeans Nov 2014 1157.25 -70.75 -5.76%

Soybeans Jan 2015 1164 -70 -5.67%

Soybeans Mar 2015 1170.5 -68.75 -5.55%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014 458.3 -11.5 -2.45%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014 430.7 -16.5 -3.69%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014 392.6 -21.8 -5.26%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014 38.85 -1.13 -2.83%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014 38.95 -1.18 -2.94%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014 39.04 -1.18 -2.93%

Corn Jul 2014 424.25 -18.75 -4.23%

Corn Sep 2014 418.75 -23.5 -5.31%

Corn Dec 2014 425.25 -22 -4.92%

Corn Mar 2015 436.25 -21.75 -4.75%

Corn May 2015 443.5 -21.25 -4.57%

Oats Jul 2014 338 +6.5 +1.96%

Oats Sep 2014 323.25 -4.5 -1.37%

Oats Dec 2014 324 -4.75 -1.44%

Oats Mar 2015 321.5 -4.25 -1.30%

Oats May 2015 317.5 -1.5 -0.47%

Wheat Jul 2014 564.75 -20.5 -3.50%

Wheat Sep 2014 577.5 -16.25 -2.74%

Wheat Dec 2014 598.25 -14.5 -2.37%

Wheat Mar 2015 619.25 -13 -2.06%

Wheat May 2015 632.25 -12.25 -1.90%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 667.25 -15.75 -2.31%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 677 -15.5 -2.24%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 687 -16.75 -2.38%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015 697.75 -16.25 -2.28%

Spring Wheat May 2015 705.75 -13.5 -1.88%

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 710.5 -15.5 -2.13%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 700.25 -21.5 -2.98%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 706.5 -20 -2.75%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 711.25 -19 -2.60%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015 709.25 -17.5 -2.41%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 37 cents at $105.37 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 93.67 cents US, unchanged from the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0676 Cdn.

Rising copper and gold prices helped lift the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index to a new record high. It closed up 51.76 points, or 0.34 percent, at 15,146.01.

In June it climbed 3.7 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 25.56 points or 0.15 percent, to end at 16,826.28.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.74 of a point, or 0.04 percent, to finish at 1,960.22.

The Nasdaq Composite added 10.25 points or 0.23 percent, to close at 4,408.18.