Bearish USDA pushes canola/corn down two percent

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Published: November 10, 2015

US Ending stocks/bu. USDA latest Trade F’cast USDA Oct
Corn 1.760 bln bu 1.597 1.561
Soybeans 0.465 0.436 0.425
Wheat 0.911 0.877 0.861

 

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World ending stocks/tonnes USDA latest Trade F’cast USDA Oct
Corn 211.9 mln t 188.4 187.83
Soybeans 82.86 85.32 85.14
Wheat 227.3 227.8 228.49

 

Canola and corn futures fell more than two percent on Tuesday following a bearish monthly USDA supply and demand report.

Soybeans fell more than one percent and December soy oil fell 1.8 percent.

December Kansas hard red wheat fell 2.8 percent, Chicago December fell 2.19 percent but Minneapolis hard spring fell only 0.94 percent.

Even with the sharp decline, January canola at $468 a tonne remains only slightly below the trading range it has been in since late September.

Corn however, is now challenging the low it set Aug. 12.

Corn has declined four sessions in a row, shedding 5.3 percent in the worst stretch of losses since August, Reuters reported.

The USDA showed U.S. corn and soybean production was better than expected, with soybean production and yields at record highs. The corn crop is the third largest ever.

The report also reflected slow exports as the U.S. struggles with a strong U.S. dollar that makes its grains uncompetitive with crops from South America and the Black Sea region, where countries have weak currencies.

USDA raised its year-end domestic stocks forecast well ahead of what the trade expected. The domestic soybean ending stocks would be the highest since 2006-07. About the only bullish news in the report was a decrease in global year-end soybean stocks

>>Related market news: Too much of a good thing: U.S. farmers grapple with another supercrop

USDA raised its forecast of corn domestic livestock feed use, but lowered its outlook for the amount of corn used in ethanol production and the amount of corn exported.

USDA also raised its global year-end corn stocks forecast by a whopping 13 percent, but that was mostly due to a huge upward revision in its China stocks number.

The USDA said Chinese feed millers were using feeds other than corn at a higher rate than previously thought over the past three years.

Reuters reported today that China is looking at several ways to stimulate use of its mountain of stored corn as well as lowering its support to farmers for growing corn to trim production next year.

Projected U.S. wheat exports for 2015-16 were lowered 50 million bushels to 800 million, and ending stocks are raised by an equal amount to 911 million. U.S. exports would be the lowest since 1971/72; ending stocks are the highest since 2009-10.

USDA it lowered its 2015 Australian wheat crop estimate by one million tonnes to 26 million, still above market expectations, but lifted is estimate of the wheat crop in the European Union by two million tonnes to 157 million — now above last year’s estimate, Reuters reported.

It left Canadian wheat production unchanged at 26 million tonnes, but raises its forecast for Canadian wheat exports one million tonnes to 20 million.

USDA pegged American canola production at 1.4 million tonnes, up from 1.14 last year.

In the minor crop, USDA sees domestic lentil production at 241,490 tonnes up from 152,720 tonnes last year.

Dry pea production is 886,860 tonnes, up from 778,140 tonnes last year.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 34 cents to US$44.21 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.42 cents, up from 75.33 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3259.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2015   460.60   -9.80   -2.08%

Canola Jan 2016   468.00   -9.80   -2.05%

Canola Mar 2016   474.20   -8.70   -1.80%

Canola May 2016   477.20   -7.80   -1.61%

Canola Jul 2016   479.80   -6.50   -1.34%

 

Milling Wheat Dec 2015   233.00   -2.00   -0.85%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016   238.00 -2.00   -0.83%

Milling Wheat May 2016   242.00   -2.00   -0.82%

 

Durum Wheat Dec 2015   320.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016   325.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2016   335.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley Dec 2015   188.50   unch   0.00%

Barley Mar 2016   190.50   unch   0.00%

Barley May 2016   191.50   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 2015   864.5   -9   -1.03%

Soybeans Jan 2016   855.5   -10.75   -1.24%

Soybeans Mar 2016   855.5   -11.75   -1.35%

Soybeans May 2016   860.5   -11.75   -1.35%

Soybeans Jul 2016   866   -11.25   -1.28%

Soybeans Aug 2016   866.5   -10.5   -1.20%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 2015   292.2   -2.8   -0.95%

Soybean Meal Jan 2016   292.1   -2.4   -0.81%

Soybean Meal Mar 2016   290.8   -2.4   -0.82%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 2015   27.27   -0.5   -1.80%

Soybean Oil Jan 2016   27.57   -0.48   -1.71%

Soybean Oil Mar 2016   27.8   -0.48   -1.70%

 

Corn Dec 2015   359   -7.75   -2.11%

Corn Mar 2016   368   -8   -2.13%

Corn May 2016   374.5   -8   -2.09%

Corn Jul 2016   380   -7.5   -1.94%

Corn Sep 2016   383   -6.25   -1.61%

 

Oats Dec 2015   226.5   +2.5   +1.12%

Oats Mar 2016   223.75   -1   -0.44%

Oats May 2016   223.25   -2.75   -1.22%

Oats Jul 2016   227  -2   -0.87%

Oats Sep 2016   231.25   -1   -0.43%

 

Wheat Dec 2015   490.75   -11   -2.19%

Wheat Mar 2016   495.5   -10   -1.98%

Wheat May 2016   500   -9.75   -1.91%

Wheat Jul 2016   501.5   -9.25   -1.81%

Wheat Sep 2016   509.75   -9   -1.73%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 2015   497.5   -4.75   -0.95%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016   508.25   -5   -0.97%

Spring Wheat May 2016   519.25   -5.75   -1.10%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016   530   -5.25   -0.98%

Spring Wheat Sep 2016   541   -5   -0.92%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   460.75   -13.25   -2.80%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   476.25   -13.5   -2.76%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016   486.5   -13.75   -2.75%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   497   -13.75   -2.69%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016   511.25   -13.5   -2.57%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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