Bargain buying lifts July canola, other crops lower

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Published: June 3, 2014

July canola spent most of Tuesday down, but a late rally pushed the price 70 cents ahead of Monday’s close.

New crop November closed down $2.60 at $458.90 per tonne.

The bounce in July was attributed to bargain buying and thoughts that the contract was oversold after recent declines.

A small rally in soy oil, also fueled by bargain buying, added support.

Canola and most other crops have been under pressure recently from seeding progress and favourable weather.

The exceptions are Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan where a series of weather fronts have dumped a lot of rain in the past month.

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Manitoba Agriculture today said farmers in the province had only 65 percent of their crops in the ground.

Seeding is estimated to be 45 to 50 percent complete in the southwest, 50 percent complete in the northwest, 85 percent complete in the central region, 75 percent complete in the eastern region and 85 to 90 percent complete in the Interlake region.

The late seeding might cause farmers to shift from soybeans to canola. Total seeded area might also be down, with farmers opting to hold back some wet fields to seed winter wheat later this year.

Conditions are better in central and western Saskatchewan and in Alberta.

Soybeans closed lower on good seeding progress. The USDA said American farmers had seeded 78 percent of the soybean crop as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 70 percent.

U.S. corn seeding was 95 percent complete, compared to the five-year average of 94 percent.

The first condition rating report of the corn crop pegged the good to excellent rating at 76 percent. Analysts had been expecting 70 percent.

U.S. spring wheat planting was pegged at 88 percent, up 14 percentage points from a week ago and in line with the five-year average.

The condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop was virtually unchanged. Parts of the southern plains have had good rain in the last week.

With most crops around the world in good shape there is a lot of pressure on grain prices. But there has been a lot of attention on the possibility of an El Nino bringing drought to Australia and other parts of the southwest Pacific and potentially India.

Two forecasters, Commodity Weather Group LLC and AccuWeather Inc., on Monday said the El Nino would likely be a weak one, limiting its effects on crops.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2014       453.90       +0.70       +0.15%

Canola Nov 2014       458.80       -2.60       -0.56%

Canola Jan 2015       464.90       -2.40       -0.51%

Canola Mar 2015       467.30       -2.50       -0.53%

Canola May 2015       469.10       -2.20       -0.47%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       202.00       -5.00      -2.42%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014       203.00       -4.00      -1.93%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014       207.00       -4.00       -1.90%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       251.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014       242.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014       244.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2014       145.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2014       145.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Dec 2014       147.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2014       1481.25       -19.25       -1.28%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1414.5       -12.5       -0.88%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1273.25       -8.75       -0.68%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1221.75       -8       -0.65%

Soybeans Jan 2015       1227.75       -8       -0.65%

Soybeans Mar 2015       1231.75       -7.5       -0.61%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       499.6       -6.4       -1.26%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014       470.7       -4.9       -1.03%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014       430.8       -4       -0.92%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       38.35       +0.04       +0.10%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014       38.46       +0.05       +0.13%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014       38.53       +0.02       +0.05%

 

Corn Jul 2014       458.25       -7.25       -1.56%

Corn Sep 2014       454       -5.25       -1.14%

Corn Dec 2014       454.25       -4.25       -0.93%

Corn Mar 2015       463.5       -4       -0.86%

Corn May 2015       470.25       -3.5       -0.74%

 

Oats Jul 2014       359       -12.25       -3.30%

Oats Sep 2014       343       -11.5       -3.24%

Oats Dec 2014       332.75       +3       +0.91%

Oats Mar 2015       324       +2.75       +0.86%

Oats May 2015       320.75       +1.75       +0.55%

 

Wheat Jul 2014       612.5       -8.25       -1.33%

Wheat Sep 2014       623       -8.75       -1.39%

Wheat Dec 2014       645.25       -9       -1.38%

Wheat Mar 2015       663.25       -8.75       -1.30%

Wheat May 2015       672.5       -8.5       -1.25%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       684.5       -12.75       -1.83%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       693.25       -12.5       -1.77%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       705       -12.25       -1.71%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       714.5       -10.5       -1.45%

Spring Wheat May 2015       718.75       -10.75       -1.47%

 

Kansas City

KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014       707.75       -11       -1.53%

KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014       715.75       -11.25       -1.55%

KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014       726.75       -11       -1.49%

KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015       732.25       -11.5       -1.55%

KC HRW Wheat May 2015       732.5       -11.25       -1.51%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 19 cents at $102.66 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 91.62 cents US, down from 91.79 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0915 Cdn.

In early unofficial tallies —

The TSX composite rose 53.94 points or 0.37 percent to 14,734.69.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 21.29 points or 0.13 percent, to end at 16,722.34.

The S&P 500 dipped just 0.73 of a point or 0.04 percent, to finish at 1,924.24.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.12 points or 0.07 percent, to close at 4,234.08.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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