Bargain buying lifts canola but weather limits gains

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Published: August 2, 2017

Light bargain buying helped lift crop futures into positive territory on Wednesday.

The modest bounce today came after two down days this week, but gains were limited by forecasts for good weather in the U.S. Midwest.

The first part of August in the central United States is expected to be cooler than normal, which would help corn as it fills kernels and soybeans as it sets pods.

The weather outlook for the Canadian Prairies into the first couple of weeks of August remains fairly dry, but the cooler trend from the U.S. could extend into the Prairies.

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November canola closed at $501.00 up $2.60 or 0.52 percent.

Corn drew support from a bullish U.S. corn yield estimate from commodity brokerage INTL FCStone, Reuters said.

The firm late Tuesday projected the U.S. corn crop at 13.59 billion bushels, with an average yield of 162.8 bu. per acre. The estimate was well below the USDA’s July forecast for a corn crop of 14.255 billion bu., with a trend-based yield of 170.4 bu per acre.

The USDA issues its next supply and demand forecasts on Aug. 10.

Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR on Tuesday increased its estimate for this year’s wheat production in Russia to a record 74-77 million tonne range.

“If Russia were indeed to harvest a crop at the upper edge of IKAR’s estimate, this would offset the weather-related crop shortfalls in the U.S.,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note, Reuters reported

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 43 cents US$49.59 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US79.58 cents, down from 79.72 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2566.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 63.53 points, or 0.42 percent, at 15,265.63, its highest close since June 28.

The Dow broke through 22,000 points to a new record high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24 percent to end at 22,016.24. The S&P 500 gained 0.05 percent to 2,477.57 and the Nasdaq Composite was flat at 6,362.65.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   501.00s   +2.60   +0.52%

Canola Jan 18   506.40s   +2.50   +0.50%

Canola Mar 18   510.30s   +2.50   +0.49%

Canola May 18   513.20s   +2.90   +0.57%

Canola Jul 18   515.50s   +2.60   +0.51%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   278.00s   +4.00   +1.46%

Milling Wheat Dec 17   281.00s   +4.00   +1.44%

Milling Wheat Mar 18   287.00s   +5.00   +1.77%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   310.00s   +2.00   +0.65%

Durum Wheat Dec 17   311.00s   +2.00   +0.65%

Durum Wheat Mar 18   293.00s   +2.00   +0.69%

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   141.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   141.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Aug 17   966-4s   +7-0   +0.73%

Soybeans Sep 17   970-6s   +6-4   +0.67%

Soybeans Nov 17   977-4s   +5-6   +0.59%

Soybeans Jan 18   986-4s   +5-6   +0.59%

Soybeans Mar 18   993-4s   +6-4  +0.66%

 

Soybean Meal Aug 17   309.0s   +0.7   +0.23%

Soybean Meal Sep 17   311.2s   +0.9   +0.29%

Soybean Meal Oct 17   312.8s   +0.8   +0.26%

 

Soybean Oil Aug 17   34.15s   +0.29   +0.86%

Soybean Oil Sep 17   34.26s   +0.29   +0.85%

Soybean Oil Oct 17 34.38s   +0.30   +0.88%

 

Corn Sep 17   365-0s   +2-4   +0.69%

Corn Dec 17   379-0s   +2-4   +0.66%

Corn Mar 18   391-0s   +2-4   +0.64%

Corn May 18   396-4s   +2-4   +0.63%

Corn Jul 18   402-0s   +2-6   +0.69%

 

Oats Sep 17   289-4s   +9-2   +3.30%

Oats Dec 17   289-4s   +8-0   +2.84%

Oats Mar 18   289-0s   +6-6   +2.39%

Oats May 18   288-0s   +6-4   +2.31%

Oats Jul 18   286-6s   +6-4   +2.32%

 

Wheat Sep 17   460-6s   -0-4   -0.11%

Wheat Dec 17   487-6s   unch   unch

Wheat Mar 18   509-2s   -0-2   -0.05%

Wheat May 18   523-0s   +0-4   +0.10%

Wheat Jul 18   532-0s   +1-0   +0.19%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 17   722-2s   +4-2   +0.59%

Spring Wheat Dec 17   735-2s   +4-4   +0.62%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   734-4s   +4-6   +0.65%

Spring Wheat May 18   724-0s   +3-4   +0.49%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   713-6s   +6-0   +0.85%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 17   464-4s   -0-6   -0.16%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   492-0s   -0-6   -0.15%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   509-6s   -0-6   -0.15%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   523-6s   -0-2   -0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   539-0s   +0-6   +0.14%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (Pit) Aug 17   114.525s   +1.725   +1.53%

Live Cattle (Pit) Oct 17   114.675s   +1.800   +1.59%

Live Cattle (Pit) Dec 17   115.875s   +1.675   +1.47%

 

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Aug 17   150.250s   +1.075   +0.72%

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Sep 17   150.600s   +1.150   +0.77%

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Oct 17   150.100s   +1.250   +0.84%

 

Lean Hogs (Pit) Aug 17   81.950s   +2.150   +2.69%

Lean Hogs (Pit) Oct 17   66.225s   +1.825   +2.83%

Lean Hogs (Pit) Dec 17   60.625s   +1.225   +2.06%

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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