SYDNEY (Reuters) — Dry weather is likely to persist across eastern Australia for the next three months, the Bureau of Meteorology said on Thursday, exacerbating stress on cattle and adding to concerns that wheat yields could suffer in the world’s third largest exporter.
The chance of below median rainfall between August and October is greater than 60 percent in northern Queensland, southern New South Wales and most of Victoria, the BOM said.
The dry outlook threatens wheat production across the Australian east coast, analysts said.
“The crops in the northern regions of the east coast need rains and if it stays dry then we could be looking at below trend yields,” said Paul Deane, senior agricultural economist, ANZ Bank.
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“The crops in Victoria and South Australia look in pretty good condition, but it will come down to September rains. You will need the right sort of rain at the right time of year.”
The Australian Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics and Sciences in June trimmed its 2014-15 wheat forecast 24.59 million tonnes, down from a March estimate of 24.80 million tonnes.
The dry weather will boost beef production. Farmers in Queensland, the country’s largest cattle grazing state, have been forced to slaughter animals at record numbers as dry weather curbs pasture growth.
ABARES last month raised 2014-15 marketing year by nearly eight percent to 1.12 million tonnes this season.
