Ag commodities tread water after stock market carnage

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Published: August 25, 2015

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While the world’s stock markets mopped up the blood from Monday’s massive selloff and Chinese carnage, the grain markets treaded water, not sure which way to move.

“We’re not seeing any big push for either buying or selling,” said analyst Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc. of McHenry, Illinois.

“It still looks like we’ve gotten through the shock of this shock-and-awe event but we still haven’t gotten back to supply and demand fundamentals.”

Wheat, corn and oats closed down a few cents Tuesday while soybeans and its components ended up, with canola finishing mixed.

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For the week ending August 30, Western Canadian feeder cattle markets traded $4-$8/cwt higher on average. Quality yearling and calf packages were up as much as $15/cwt in some cases.

Overnight the Chinese government slashed rates in an attempt to end the rout in Chinese stocks, something that caused both European and U.S. equities to bounce back from much of the Monday losses.

That removed the dynamic that threatened to drive down crop prices.

“We are seeing some of the liquidation pressure on grains subside,” said Nelson.

Still, grain prices are weak, with spring wheat prices hitting a five-year low Monday.

Much of the U.S. spring wheat crop is already harvested, so there is limited danger from frost now.

U.S. crops seem to be in relatively good condition, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Cattle futures gained back about a third of their Monday losses on Tuesday, while hog prices have been bouncing back since Friday.

Most commodity markets were flat Tuesday, with metal and financials recording losses.

Brent crude oil bounced back about 50 cents a barrel.

As Tuesday wore on, the U.S. stock markets gave up most of their bounce-back gains, but no signs of a return to panic could be seen.

Contact ed.white@producer.com

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.07 to US$39.31 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US75.21 cents, down from 75.68 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3296.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2015   477.40   -0.30   -0.06%

Canola Jan 2016   480.70   +2.50   +0.52%

Canola Mar 2016   482.20   +4.20   +0.88%

Canola May 2016   482.10   +5.10   +1.07%

Canola Jul 2016   480.20   +4.90   +1.03%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015   223.00   -3.00   -1.33%

Milling Wheat Dec 2015   223.00   -3.00   -1.33%

Milling Wheat Mar 2016   227.00   -3.00   -1.30%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2015   335.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2016   340.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2015   200.60   unch   0.00%

Barley Dec 2015   200.60   unch   0.00%

Barley Mar 2016   202.60   unch   0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 2015   894.25   +1.5   +0.17%

Soybeans Nov 2015   877.75   +3.75   +0.43%

Soybeans Jan 2016   881   +3.5   +0.40%

Soybeans Mar 2016   881.25   +5   +0.57%

Soybeans May 2016   884.5   +5.75   +0.65%

Soybeans Jul 2016   888.25   +5   +0.57%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015   327.6   +1.2   +0.37%

Soybean Meal Oct 2015   320.8   +2.2   +0.69%

Soybean Meal Dec 2015   317.1   +1.9   +0.60%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015   26.82   +0.27   +1.02%

Soybean Oil Oct 2015   26.91   +0.28   +1.05%

Soybean Oil Dec 2015   27.15   +0.29   +1.08%

Corn Sep 2015   365.5   -3.25   -0.88%

Corn Dec 2015   377   -3.5   -0.92%

Corn Mar 2016   388   -3.75   -0.96%

Corn May 2016   394.25   -3.75   -0.94%

Corn Jul 2016   398.25   -3.75   -0.93%

Oats Sep 2015   212.75   -3   -1.39%

Oats Dec 2015   219.25   -1.5   -0.68%

Oats Mar 2016   225   -2.75   -1.21%

Oats May 2016   233   -2   -0.85%

Oats Jul 2016   234   -2   -0.85%

Wheat Sep 2015   495   -8.25   -1.64%

Wheat Dec 2015   499.5   -8.5   -1.67%

Wheat Mar 2016   505.75   -6.75   -1.32%

Wheat May 2016   509.25   -6.5   -1.26%

Wheat Jul 2016   511.5   -6.25   -1.21%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2015   496.75   -7.75   -1.54%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015   514   -8   -1.53%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016   530.75   -8.5   -1.58%

Spring Wheat May 2016   541.5   -8.5   -1.55%

Spring Wheat Jul 2016   551.75   -8.25   -1.47%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015   466   -9.75   -2.05%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015   489   -8.5   -1.71%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016   503.25   -8.25   -1.61%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016   513   -8   -1.54%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016   523   -7.5   -1.41%

About the author

Ed White

Ed White

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