Thousands of farmers have already been devastated by large acreage losses because of flooding and saturation, but many thousands more will be worrying all summer about frost.
A large minority of the Prairies was seeded late and is developing slowly, opening the window to the threat of frost.
Long, warm falls have saved many farmers in recent years, but analysts say that won’t likely give them reason to relax.
“With canola we have been lucky a number of times,” said Marlene Boersch, co-founder of Mercantile Consulting Venture.
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Analyst Greg Kostal said the market now knows how many acres were unseeded or abandoned this spring – the Canadian Wheat Board estimates 6.5 million – and has turned its attention to the problem of late and slowly developing crops.
“We’re obviously going to be talking about the need for a co-operative September and a longer first frost date, or we’re going to be going down the path of higher feed grain (proportions),” said Kostal.
“We’re not going to resolve the weather jitterishness any time quick.”
The high likelihood of a big drop in prairie durum and pea production has already made those markets jump, with durum particularly affected.
Western Canadian and North Dakota production dominates world durum trade, so a decline of possibly two million acres is scaring buyers.
“That’s a game-changer and the market has responded accordingly,” said Kostal.
The wheat board has predicted a prairie spring wheat crop of less than 16 million acres, down almost two million from what farmers hoped to plant in March.
That will be only two percent more than last year’s rain and saturation reduced acreage.
Durum is down 20 percent from March intentions to four million acres. That is up 27 percent up from last year but well beneath the five million acres farmers wanted to plant.
Bruce Burnett, the wheat board’s weather and crop production analyst, joked at the beginning of the board’s recent outlook session that he failed miserably a few weeks ago in picking the date for the session because it was supposed to be after seeding wound up.
However, delays in seeding, an inability to seed and slow crop development are chronic this year, even if not as bad as in recent memory.
“We are at a higher planted progress than last year,” said Burnett.
“Unfortunately, the early part of the seeding season, we were significantly behind last year, so more of the crop has been planted later this year. The bulk of the crop has been planted May 15 or later. That brings in extra risks in terms of crop quality in the end of the growing season.”
For most crops, such as wheat and canola, farmers can’t rely on making up in the market what they are losing in the field. Canada doesn’t dominate world production or trade of these commodities, even if it is a major exporter.
However, durum and special crops are much more prairie-centred, so analysts say farmers have the best chance with them to see stronger prices compensating for lower acres and worse quality.
Barley could see its acreage rebound the most from present projections, Burnett said in his presentation.
“There is still some opportunity for this crop to be planted,” he said, noting the crop’s ability to be planted late and replace crops that require longer seasons than are now likely.
