Canadian farmers can expect warmer, wetter and generally more favorable crop growing conditions thanks to climate change, says an expert on international agriculture.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), temperatures are going to be rising more over land than over water and more near the poles than at the equator.
That means Canada, Siberia and Alaska will experience the largest percentage increase in temperature as a result of global climate change, said Robert Thompson, senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
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He told growers attending the Canola Council of Canada’s annual convention in Saskatoon that means more heat units and better yields for them, although they could also have more bugs and disease to contend with because of warmer winters.
Thompson said there was little consensus at the IPCC about global precipitation patterns, other than that there will be higher levels of precipitation during winter and summer in Canada, Siberia and Alaska.
“One of the greatest potential beneficiaries of global climate change may be prairie agriculture because your soils up here are just as good as the U.S. corn belt. The main thing you have lacked is precipitation,” he said.
“I think Canada could end up being an even greater supplier of agricultural commodities to the international market.”
Thompson said he is annoyed by media reports that write off agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa because of climate change.
“It may happen, but the models don’t give us a basis for making anywhere near as definitive statements as a lot of the media are making.”
Thompson said the IPCC doesn’t know what will happen to precipitation levels in that part of the world, which is a big determinant of agricultural output.
