What a surprise!
Corn is up the 40-cent limit in Chicago Friday morning after the USDA reported that Sept. 1 stocks are only 988 million bushels, down 12 percent from 1.128 billion a year earlier.
Analysts polled by Reuters had, on average, expected stocks of 1.113 billion bu.
It appears feed use in the fourth quarter was higher than expected, leading to more corn around than expected.
Wheat futures are also up strongly after inventories in the report fell to 2.1 billion bu., seven percent smaller than traders expected and a four-year low.
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While corn is up more than 5.5 percent and wheat up more than four percent, oilseeds are trailing behind with soybeans up about 1.5 percent and canola up slightly more than one percent.
November canola at about 10:20 a.m. CST is trading at $598.40, up $6.50.
The report was actually negative for soybean prices. Soybean stocks were pegged at 169 million bu., up from the pre-report average estimate of 131 million.
• The big moves in corn today are the exact opposite of what happened last year at this time when USDA surprised the market with a corn stocks number that was well above analysts’ expectations.
• Corn is also supported by a report from the International Grains Council that cut its forecast for global corn and wheat production.
The monthly report, cut the corn forecast by 5.1 million tonnes to 833 million tonnes, largely reflecting a 4.9 million cut to the EU-27 crop to 55.0 million.
Global wheat crop fell 4.5 million tonnes to 657 million.
It cut the EU-27 crop by 1.7 million tonnes to 131.4 million. And Russia’s wheat crop, was pegged at 39 million tonnes, down two million from last month’s report
