PUERTO VALLARTA, Mexico – Canada’s canola industry has set a goal to increase production to seven million tonnes by 2007.
All indications point to the industry achieving that goal sooner than expected.
JoAnne Buth, vice-president of crop production with the Canola Council of Canada, is forecasting a 2004-05 crop of 7.37-7.77 million tonnes, which is up as much as 16 percent over last fall’s harvest.
She arrived at that estimate by spending the past few months talking to growers, seed companies, provincial canola organizations and market analysts and by reviewing historical acreage and yield trend lines.
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Buth gave a seeding estimate of 13 million acres of canola this spring, up 12 percent from 2003.
She had a tough time getting a handle on what will happen in Saskatchewan, but the message from Alberta was clear, with producers forecasting “high, high, high” canola plantings.
Her production number is rising by a larger percentage than seeded acreage, which can be attributed to the increased seeding of hybrid canola varieties.
Buth anticipates hybrids will account for 40 percent of 2004 canola acreage, up from 35 percent last year and 27 percent two years ago.
“A lot of the hybrid seed is already booked,” she told delegates attending the convention.
Hybrids have a better ability to withstand drought and can deliver spectacular yields given optimal fertilizer and weather conditions.
“Last year we heard of growers that were coming in anywhere from 50-60 bushels per acre in high moisture areas with really, really intensive management.”
Buth’s production forecast was corroborated by what Dennis Maxfield had to say in his world oilseed supply and demand outlook.
“Given favourable conditions during the growing season, Canadian production could reach 7.5 to eight million tonnes or more, an increase of nearly 13 percent over the current season and the largest crop since the 1999-2000 marketing year,” said the owner of the on-line oilseed publication, the Trade News Service.
Growers at the meeting were concerned whether the increased production will find a home.
The Japanese Food Agency recently announced it would be testing imported food for 63 pesticide residues, including all the major ones used on canola. That has some growers worried because Japan is Canada’s top canola buyer, accounting for 65 percent of exports in 2002-03.
Canola shipments will be turned back if found to contain the unwanted residues, but Buth said that is an unlikely scenario.
“Canola has very few pesticide residues on it anyway, so the chances of finding anything are slim.”
The industry is working with the Canadian embassy in Japan to harmonize maximum pesticide residue limits to avoid a potential disruption of trade. Buth is confident the two nations will reach a satisfactory solution.
“It seems to be going smoother than we thought it would when it first started.”
