Agricultural Outlook Forum 2005
Canola futures closed the week with a good gains on Friday thanks to expectations that strong demand will draw ending stocks down.
Canola was supported by continuing good domestic and export demand, stronger soybean values on good exports and higher crude oil prices.
March canola closed at $567.70 per tonne, up $5.40.
Perhaps because of the forecast for new moisture from a weekend storm and expectations of a record number of seeded acres, November’s gain was muted, rising only 10 cents to $532.50.
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For the week, the March contract rose $13.20
The November contract rose $5.90 on the week.
• A weekend snowstorm is expected to give large areas of the dry northern plains on both sides of the border welcome moisture.
Environment Canada forecasts 10 to 15 centimetres over Saturday and Sunday for parts of western Alberta and large parts of Saskatchewan’s grain belt.
Slightly larger amounts are forecast for North Dakota.
Minneapolis spring wheat fell sharply on the weather outlook and on lingering pressure from the USDA’s forecast for increased U.S. wheat seedings issued on Thursday.
• Soybeans were supported by weekly exports that were above expectations. Also, Thursday’s USDA outlooks for the new crop year said U.S. soybean stocks by the end of 2012-13 would likely drop to 205 million bushels, down from 275 million at the end of the current crop year.
• China bought a significant amount of U.S. corn for the first time in four months. Corn prices are rising in southern China, making U.S. imports attractive.
• The USDA 2012 outlook meeting said U.S. production of hard red winter, durum, and other spring wheat are expected to rise. These increases may be partially offset by decreases for soft red winter and white winter wheat. Hard red winter plantings are up six percent this year and a return to more normal yields will lead to higher production. Durum and other spring wheat are also expected to have higher planted area, especially in the Dakotas and Montana.
Total wheat production for 2012 is expected to increase more than eight percent to 2,165 million bushels due to increases in area and yield.
The projected increase in production for 2012-13 more than offsets expected increases in domestic use for wheat. Thus, ending stocks are projected 13 percent higher at 957 million bu., which would be the highest since 2009-10. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2012-13 is projected at 44 percent, down just 4.4 percentage points from the recent high in 2009-10.
• The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 146,394 tonnes of canola in the week ending Feb. 22, down about five percent from the week before.
That represented a crush capacity of 88 percent a little less than the average to date.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Mar 12 $567.70, up $5.40 (+0.96%)
Canola May 12 $564.20, up $2.40 (+0.43%)
Canola Jul 12 $564.90, up $1.00 (+0.18%)
Canola Nov 12 $532.50, up $0.10 (+0.02%)
The previous trading day’s best basis in the par region was $2.25 per tonne off the March contract, said the ICE Futures Canada exchange in Winnipeg. Several crushing plants have positive basis.
The 14-day relative strength index was 83.
Western Barley Mar 12 $214.00, unchanged
Western Barley May 12 $217.00, unchanged
Milling Wht Oct 12 $257.00, down $7.00 (-2.65%)
Milling Wht Dec 12 $262.00, down $6.50 (-2.42%)
Milling Wht Mar 13 $267.00, down $6.50 (-2.38%)
Durum Wht Oct 12 $265.90, unchanged
Durum Wht Dec 12 $270.40, unchanged
Durum Wht Mar 13 $276.60, unchanged
Barley Oct 12 $182.40, unchanged
Barley Dec 12 $185.90, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $187.40, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans Mar 12 $12.79, up 2.25 cents (+0.18%)
Soybeans May 12 $12.8675, up 3.25 (+0.25%)
Soybeans Nov 12 $12.7075, up 3.0 (+0.24%)
Corn Mar 12 $6.4075, up 1.25 (+0.20%)
Corn May 12 $6.44, up 1.5 (+0.23%)
Corn Dec 12 $5.58, down 0.75 (-0.13%)
Oats Mar 12 $3.195, down 1.0 (-0.31%)
Oats May 12 $3.11, down 2.5 (-0.80%)
Oats Dec 12 $3.22, up 1.0 (+0.31%)
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wht Mar 12 $7.865, down 14.5 cents (-1.81%)
Spring Wht May 12 $7.925, down 10.75 (-1.34%)
Spring Wht Dec 12 $7.85, down 1.0 (-0.13%)
Nearby light crude oil in New York settled at $109.77 a barrel, up $1.94. Brent crude rose to more than $125, up 11 percent this month, mostly on tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.
The Canadian dollar at noon was at par $1.0012 US, down from $1.0015 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 99.88 cents Cdn.
In an early tally, the Toronto Stock Exchange composite ended down 5.51 points, or 0.04 percent, at 12,725.77.
Unofficially the Dow Jones industrial average was down 2.27 points, or 0.02 percent, at 12,982.42. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 2.28 points, or 0.17 percent, at 1,365.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 6.77 points, or 0.23 percent, at 2,963.75.
For the week the Dow was up 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 was up 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq was up 0.4 percent.
The S&P 500 is up more than eight percent this year, and some analysts expect a pullback.
