Canola rises on S. American crop downgrades and cold European weather

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Published: January 31, 2012

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Canola futures rose on Tuesday along with other grains, supported by downgrades to South American soy crop and cold weather in Europe that threatens to damage wheat crops.

Also, markets were optimistic that there will soon be a Greek debt restructuring deal.

March canola closed at $520.10 per tonne, up $2.90, but had spent time down earlier in the day. The contract fell 1.1 percent in January.

Index funds are rolling their canola positions into the May contract.

There was little trade in the new ICE wheat, durum and barley contracts.

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• U.S. wheat contracts were supported by a potential curb on Russian wheat exports.

A duty to curb record grain exports would be imposed from April onward, according to plans now under discussion by the Russian government, the head of Russia’s grain industry lobby said.

• Influential oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its South American 2012 soybean forecasts.

It cut Argentina’s production to 46.5 million tonnes from 48.5 million tonnes forecast on Jan. 24 and 52 million tonnes forecast in December.

Last year it produced 49.2 million tonnes

It shaved Brazil’s crop to 70 million tonnes from 72 million tonnes estimated on Jan. 24 and 72.8 million it forecast in December.

Last year it produced 75.3 million tonnes.

Another forecaster, Agroconsult, pegged Argentina’s soybean production at 45 million tonnes.

• While dry weather has hurt South American prospects, there are showers this week that are preventing further damage.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Mar 12 $520.10, up $2.90 (+0.56%)

Canola May 12 $526.10, up $2.00 (+0.38%)

Canola Jul 12 $526.80, up $1.90 (+0.36%)

Canola Nov 12 $504.00, up $1.70 (+0.34%)

The previous trading day’s best basis was $7.27 per tonne off the March contract, said the ICE Futures Canada exchange in Winnipeg.

The 14-day relative strength index was 46.

 

Western Barley Mar 12 $212.00, unchanged

 

New Winnipeg ICE contracts

Milling Wht Oct 12 $262.00, up $1.00

Milling Wht Dec 12 $267.00, up $1.00

Milling Wht Mar 13 $274.00, up $1.00

Durum Wht Oct 12 $268.50 unchanged

Durum Wht Dec 12 $273.00 unchanged

Durum Wht Mar 13 $278.00 unchanged

Barley Oct 12        $181.00        unchanged

Barley Dec 12        $184.00        unchanged

Barley Mar 13        $185.50        unchanged

 

 

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Mar 12 $12.005, up 15.25 cents (+1.29%)

Soybeans May 12 $12.0925, up 14.0 (+1.17%)

Soybeans Nov 12 $12.0375, up 9.25 (+0.77%)

Corn Mar 12 $6.40, up 8.25 (+1.31%)

Corn Dec 12 $5.695, up 4.75 (+0.84%)

Oats Mar 12 $2.985, up 6.5 (+2.23%)

Oats Dec 12 $3.125, up 4.5 (+1.46%)

 

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Mar 12 $8.29, up 10.0 cents (+1.22%)

Spring Wheat May 12 $8.13, up 8.0 (+0.99%)

Spring Wheat Dec 12 $7.9075, up 15.5 (+2.00%)

 

Nearby light crude oil in New York fell 30 cents to settle at $98.48 a barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.48 cents US, down from 99.68 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0052 Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite ended up 15.73 points, or 0.13 percent, at 12,452.15.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 fell 0.55 points, or 0.04 percent, to 1,312.46.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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