Grain is pouring out of the former Soviet Union like vodka at a Russian wedding.
Governments in the region eliminated or loosened export controls weeks ago, the winter wheat harvest is revealing a big crop and spring cereals look good.
“Spring wheat crops are in far better shape right now (compared to last year’s drought-ravaged crop),” said weather and crop conditions analyst Bruce Burnett of the Canadian Wheat Board.
“That’s why they’re exporting wheat with great abandon.”
Read Also
StatCan stands by its model-based crop forecast
Statistics Canada’s model-based production estimates are under scrutiny, but agency says it is confident in the results.
Authorities and analysis firms have been increasing their crop-size estimates as the winter crop harvest takes place, Reuters reports.
Ukraine is estimating it could export 20 million tonnes of grain if the harvest remains on track.
It exported only 12.1 million tonnes last year because of drought.
Wheat exports could rise to nine million tonnes this year from last year’s four million.
The total crop last year was 39.2 million tonnes, but this year should be 47 million tonnes.
Russian firm SovEcon has increased its estimate of Russian grain production to 87 to 92 million tonnes this year from a previous estimate of 82 to 86 million tonnes as conditions have improved through the season.
The Russian committee for weather monitoring is predicting 85 to 89 million tonnes, and the nation’s agriculture department is estimating 85 million tonnes.
SovEcon expects the Russian barley crop to double and the wheat crop to increase by more than one-third.
Russian exports of low-priced wheat to Egypt have helped undermine world wheat markets recently, which now have proof that former Soviet Union republics will once again play a major role in supplying buyers.
Russia appears keen to prove itself once more a formidable exporter.
“We will regain our position in the global grain market,” said agriculture minister Yelena Skrynnik.
Burnett said the spring crop is in much better condition than at this time last year, and generally look good.
A spell of heat is hitting the region now but would be a problem only if it lingered and is intense.
“If it’s temporary, doesn’t last two to three weeks, (crops will hold up),” said Burnett.
