A Western Producer poll of crop analysts in advance of Statistics Canada’s April 26 seeding intentions report shows king wheat will maintain its crown in 2011.
Four leading analysts believe growers will plant more board grains and fewer oilseeds than Agriculture Canada forecast in its latest outlook issued March 15.
The average trade estimate for spring and winter wheat plantings is 19.3 million acres, up from Agriculture Canada’s projection of 18.5 million acres.
“Wheat economics look good,” said Greg Kostal, president of Kostal Ag Consulting.
Read Also
Volunteers help exotic animal farm rebuild
Exotic animal farm loses beloved camel and pony to huge hail storm that gripped the Brooks, Alta. area as a community member starts a fundraiser to help the family recover from the financial and emotional damage.
He senses a desire among farmers to revisit wheat after a few years of pushing their rotations with pulses and oilseeds.
The analysts anticipate 4.6 million acres of durum, up 15 percent from Agriculture Canada’s forecast and 47 percent from last year’s plantings.
“We’re basically going to be out of top quality stock. You just need a minor hiccup in one of the three (main durum growing) areas and you could be off to the races on the price,” said Darren Frank, senior market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
Barley plantings are projected at 7.6 million acres, up from Agriculture Canada’s 7.4 million acres.
But it could end up even higher than that, depending on how the spring unfolds.
“Oats and barley are crops that can be planted late,” said Kostal.
He believes barley could surge as high as 8.5 million acres due to lengthy seeding delays.
Canola is forecast at 18.2 million acres, well below the 19 to 20 million acre projections tossed around earlier this year, which would have put canola in a dogfight with wheat for Canada’s top crop by area.
Chuck Penner, president of Left-Field Commodity Research, said canola is one of the crops grown in northeastern Saskatchewan and northwestern Manitoba that may not get planted due to soggy soil, along with peas, spring wheat and some barley and oats.
Kostal said plantings could drop as low as 17 million acres if that happens.
On the other hand, canola is the one crop that can be seeded with a floater or airplane, which could add a few more acres depending on how long wet conditions persist.
The average trade estimate for flax is 1.3 million acres, up dramatically from last year’s crop of 925,000 acres, hurt by trade problems linked to Triffid seed contamination. That is
down from Agriculture Canada’s 1.6 million acre estimate.
“I don’t think the price is rosy enough to really provide a meaningful spurt,” said Kostal.
The analysts think growers will plant 3.5 million acres of oats, which is below Agriculture Canada’s 3.7 million acre forecast.
“The interesting thing about oats is it never pencils in all that well comp a re d to the other crops,” said Penner. “It rarely does end up at the top of the pack and yet farmers somehow,
2,200 2,717
for some reason, still put it in.”
Kostal agreed that oats are a bit of an anomaly.
“It doesn’t cut it in relation to spring wheat but it’s still a good cash flow generator that doesn’t have a restricted delivery regime,” he said.
The trade concurred with Agriculture Canada on its 3.2 million acre projection for peas, down from 3.45 million acres seeded in 2010.
Penner anticipates a shift toward more yellows and fewer greens.
“The last couple of years we’ve seen
3,480 2,875
$2, sometimes even $3, a bushel premium for greens over yellows. And this year there is almost none,” he said.
Lentil plantings are expected to plummet to 2.5 million acres, down almost one million acres from last year.
“It’s just about peeling back from two years of huge growth,” said Kostal.
All of the analysts felt that most of the reduction will be in red lentils.
They said their estimates are subject to how the spring unfolds.
———
acres)WheatDurumOatsBarleyFlaxCanolaPeasforecast19,3004,6383,5137,5581,28818,2383,244forecast20,5005,0004,0008,2001,45019,2003,600forecast18,7004,3003,2506,7501,05017,5002,925forecast18,5254,0263,7057,4101,56818,5253,211plantings17,9153,1502,9136,91192516,8183,450intentions19,5373,6853,7328,6631,71016,200
3,760
