Above normal runoff continues to threaten Saskatchewan’s grain belt.
The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority’s March forecast takes into account fall conditions as well as the snow pack and how much water it contains. It then compares the numbers to previous years.
The unknown factor is how fast the spring melt will occur. There are concerns that the melt is late and will come quickly, leading to widespread flooding.
“We know going in that the flooding could be as extreme as it was last year. It could be worse,” said agriculture minister Bob Bjornerud.
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“The cold weather is hanging on right now and that in itself is creating a bit of dilemma for producers in the province because we know it is going to go fairly fast.”
John Fahlman of the watershed authority said the timing of spring melting has a big effect on runoff and flood potential.
“The further we go into April, the faster it will melt,” he said.
The authority is predicting well above normal runoff potential for east-central Saskatchewan and a band running from the Leader area northeast to Prince Albert and Spiritwood.
Rafferty, Alameda and Moose Mountain reservoirs and Lenore, Fishing and Good Spirit lakes are expected to be high.
The watershed authority predicts flow frequencies in the one in 10 year to one in 20 year events.
Flows and levels in the Qu’Appelle River system will be similar to other high-flow years such as 1996 and 1969.
Inflow into Lake Diefenbaker is expected to be near normal, as are flows on the Saskatchewan River system. Flows could be one in five years in northeastern Saskatchewan.
Fahlman said an ideal situation would see temperatures warm up during the day to start water running but then freezing at night to slow it down.
He also cautioned that it is only a forecast.
“We see the threat but it may not materialize.”
Saskatchewan’s emergency flood damage reduction program
$22 million for flood mitigation available to communities, rural municipalities and owners of rural yard sites and country residences
administered by Saskatchewan Watershed Authority and Ministry of Corrections, Public Safety and Policing
intended for protection of homes and permanent structures rather than farmland
program covers eligible costs of pre-flood activities retroactive to Jan. 1, 2011
work must be recommended by an engineer, approved by the Saskatchewan Watershed Authority and finished by June 1, 2011
eligible projects by communities and rural municipalities include 100 percent coverage on technical assistance and engineering; 75 percent coverage on construction of long-term works such as berms and diversion channels; and 50 percent coverage on temporary, short-term measures such as sandbagging, diking, channel clearing and culvert clearing
eligible projects aimed at protecting yard sites and country residences include engineering (100 percent), berm construction and channel improvements (85 percent), extraordinary maintenance or flood proofing of farm access roads (85 percent) and tests on safety of potable water supplies (10 percent)
Source: Saskatchewan Watershed Authority
