The Mexican border is effectively closed to Canadian canaryseed imports.
That is the only thing that is clear about Mexico’s sudden action, affecting about 25 percent of Canada’s canaryseed exports.
“Everything’s still up in the air,” said Bob Lafond of Roy Legumex, after a hectic week of industry and Canadian Food Inspection Agency discussions. “We don’t know why this originated. We don’t know where it’s from. We don’t know what we have to do to make it better.”
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On June 23, Mexico shut its border to Canadian canaryseed shipments that contained even one seed on a list of common prairie weeds, including wild buckwheat, cow cockle and stinkweed, which Mexico considers foreign and noxious. Some shipments have been turned back at the border and trade is suspended.
Prairie canaryseed prices have dropped from about 22 cents before the border blockage to about 19 cents now.
CFIA grains and oilseeds specialist Doug Winmill said Canadian officials are working on short and long-term fixes.
“We’re looking for something, at least in the short term, to resolve the stuff that’s being held at the border.”
The sudden border closure has badly disrupted the industry and frustrated officials.
“Based on a history of sending them canaryseed for 20 years, we certainly didn’t think the implementation had to be quite as harsh as it was,” said Winmill.
“It’s a huge market,” said Brian Clancey of Stat Publishing.
He thinks producer prices will hold up because stocks are low and acreage far less than expected.
“It tends to be planted last,” said Clancey. “I think the canaryseed area is not much different from last year.”
To leave a 10,000 tonne carryover in 2010-11, demand has to be cut by about 36,000 tonnes, Clancey said. That means the market will be strong even if Mexico stays out.
“Markets will probably get to where they’re going to get anyway, but it’ll probably take a lot longer.”
With new supply blocked for now, the price of canaryseed in Mexico has jumped higher, said Lafond.
“The market internally has gone through the roof, so whoever had inventory has done well with it. At some point in time, that will run out and we’re the only game in town.”
