A virulent strain of stripe rust is inflicting serious damage on wheat in 12 countries in North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia.“It looks really nasty, especially in Morocco, Algeria and Syria,” said Tom Fetch, stem rust pathologist with Agriculture Canada.The International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas called the outbreak an epidemic that “is expected to cause billions of dollars in crop losses.”The disease has been particularly prevalent in the Middle East, an important customer for Canadian wheat exporters. In 2008-09, the region, especially Iran and Iraq, was Canada’s top customer, buying more wheat than Asia.Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis with the Canadian Wheat Board, said disease damage could provide some relief in what is expected to be a burdensome supply of wheat.“This is another one of those events that does help the overall picture,” he said.In 2002, a strain of stripe rust emerged that was able to overcome Yr27, the main genetic source of resistance bred into wheat lines. Weather conditions were unfavourable to the spread of the strain until 2009, when it showed up in Morocco, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Algeria and Afghanistan.A mild winter and adequate rainfall spurred on the spread of the disease in 2010.The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said the situation has reached epidemic proportions in Syria. Outbreaks have also been reported in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Morocco, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan this year. Many of those countries are important wheat producers and importers.“The current outbreak is primarily affecting soft bread wheat varieties, which form the backbone of the region’s wheat crop,” said the agency in a June 10 report.Burnett said it is premature to speculate on how it will affect North African durum demand but it appears the Middle East will need to buy more bread wheat from abroad.“It strengthens the import demand from those regions above what was previously expected,” he said.The last outbreak of the disease occurred in the late 1980s, causing a 21 percent reduction in wheat yields in the Middle East.Wheat production in the Middle East was expected to rebound in 2010, rising 12 percent to 41.1 million tonnes.The USDA has lowered its production forecast in Syria and Turkey. Estimates remain unchanged in Iran, where infection rates are lower than its neighbours, and Iraq, where losses in the north have been offset by better-than-expected yields in other provinces.Any new demand will likely be filled from European and Black Sea wheat but if production problems develop in those regions, it will open the door for North American and Australian exports.Burnett said it is possible the disease could move from the Middle East and Central Asia into India and Pakistan, two of the world’s largest wheat producers.
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