Statistics Canada’s prediction earlier this summer of good crop yields in Alberta may have been optimistic.
James Wright with AFSC, the Alberta agency in charge of crop insurance, said crop yields across most of the province are 30 percent lower than average.
“It’s a substantial amount,” said Wright, a project manager with AFSC’s actuarial and program readiness department who gathers yield data from hundreds of crop insurance adjusters in Alberta.
“This is not just coffee shop banter.”
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Adjusters collect data during hail insurance claim and preharvest assessments.
“These are in-the-field measurements,” Wright said.
“Adjusters go out with producers and they talk about yields. We get information from a lot of different ways.”
Adjusters have found poor crops across the province, except for southern Alberta, where those south of the Trans-Canada Highway received timely rain and warmer temperatures than the rest of the province.
Statistics Canada gathers its mid-summer yield estimates by phoning producers in late July. Wright said farmers are optimistic and in July still believed a good crop was possible.
“Producers generally believe things are going to get better and give optimistic numbers.”
Frost fears
Farmers have now started to look anxiously at their thermometers. Wright estimates Alberta producers need frost to stay away until mid-September to allow the crop to reach maturity.
“As of the 15th of September, we should have the crop to maturity. Frost on the 15th would harm the quality, but not bad.”
Wright said payouts for crop insurance are expected to reach $600 to $700 million, higher than the $400 million that farmers paid in premiums.
Crop insurance payouts started early. A late spring frost killed a lot of canola and AFSC paid $5 million to farmers for frost damage, up from the more usual $1 million.
“It just started bad. We had huge payments on reseeding.”
The hundreds of acres of canola that were reseeded will also be late, affecting production and yield this fall.
Wright said no single area of the province is receiving large payouts; rather, lots of smaller claims have been filed.
