Statistics Canada’s pea seeding intentions number is being met with considerable skepticism.
Growers told the agency they plan to plant one million more acres of peas than analysts thought they would in January at Pulse Days in Saskatoon.
The 14,500 farmers surveyed by Statistics Canada between March 24 and 31 said they planned to plant 4.2 million acres of the pulse crop, up five percent from last year.
That’s in stark contrast to industry projections delivered a few months earlier at the year’s biggest pulse conference, where analysts forecast 15 to 20 percent fewer acres.
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As winter turned to spring, the trade softened its outlook but most still anticipated fewer peas, so the forecast of another record crop is being questioned.
“I can’t really see that happening,” said Dale Risula, Saskatchewan Agriculture’s special crop specialist.
“Peas are likely going to fall in seeded area. Not drastically, but slightly.”
While farmers in the northern black soil zones may plant more peas to reduce fertilizer costs, those in southern Saskatchewan are likely to switch to lentils, a more attractively priced nitrogen-fixing crop.
Risula believes too much faith is placed in the seeding intentions report.
“I’m not sure if farmers tell them the truth all the time. I think they sort of just throw numbers at (Statistics Canada) to get rid of them.”
Survey results show pea acreage is expected to rise two percent in Saskatchewan and 25 percent in Alberta. Plantings would decrease in Manitoba.
“To be honest, I’m quite surprised that we’re seeing that much of an increase in Saskatchewan and Alberta, especially with the bearish tones that many of the market speakers over the winter meeting season had,” said Chris Sumner, executive director of the Manitoba Pulse Growers Association.
Growers in his province tend to dabble with the crop, depending on price, and now they’re about half the value they were this time last year.
“Once those prices started to slide in the fall of 2008, those guys who were playing around with them said, ‘you know what? I’ll take my money and run.’ “
The pea number also surprised Garth Patterson, executive director of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.
“What I was hearing through the winter was peas may be the same to down,” he said.
Patterson’s only explanation for the 4.2 million acres is that it may reflect strong green pea prices and grower dissatisfaction with cereal values.
The 2008-09 pea supply and disposition has steadily improved. Stat Publishing now forecasts 650,000 tonnes of carryout, down from the one million tonne figure discussed at Pulse Days.
John Bennett, a grower from Biggar, Sask., said that’s one reason he plans to maintain pulse acres at last year’s levels.
“There has certainly been some strength in peas just the last few weeks,” he said.
Bennett would increase pea and lentil plantings if the trade came out with new crop contracts that contained act of God clauses.
