Turkish lentil production will rebound in 2009 but will be much smaller than a normal crop due to poor seed supply, according to a new report.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service has forecasted a 280,000 tonne lentil crop in what is normally the second largest production region in the world, behind India.
That is up from last year’s drought ravaged 100,000 tonne crop but only 58 percent of normal Turkish lentil production of 483,000 tonnes.
Darren Lemieux, trader with Simpson Seeds, a Moose Jaw, Sask., company that operates a red lentil splitting plant, said the USDA’s number jibes with what he heard from sources both inside and outside of Turkey.
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The number he has penciled in for Turkish production is 300,000 tonnes.
“What the report is saying and what other sources are saying is there will be a deficit of approximately 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes coming out of Turkey this year. That has to be filled from somewhere,” he said.
Canada was the main beneficiary of last year’s production wreck. According to the USDA report, Canada supplied 91 percent of Turkey’s 191,683 tonnes of lentil imports.
Murad Al-Katib, president of SaskCan Pulse Trading, the largest lentil splitter in North and South America, is also forecasting 300,000 tonnes of Turkish production.
If that happens, there will be enough supply to meet local needs of about 250,000 tonnes per year but little left over for export. Turkey is usually a major exporter of red lentils. Last year it shipped 70,345 tonnes, down from 186,271 tonnes in 2007.
“It bodes well for Canada’s ability to be a major driver of this industry,” said Al-Katib.
Canada will pick up markets in the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and North Africa that have traditionally been serviced by Turkey.
Exporters will face little competition from another key exporting region. Australia produced 51,000 tonnes of lentils in 2008-09, less than half of its five-year average.
“When we come with the new crop, I expect we’re going to be again the major supply origin for the world,” said Al-Katib.
Lemieux noted that India also recently extended its pulse export ban for another year.
“Any production India had isn’t leaving in any great amount. That’s another step in the right direction,” he said.
Al-Katib wasn’t willing to speculate what this all means for prices but he noted that growers have not been falling over themselves to sign up for new crop contracts released last week that were in the 23 cents per pound range. They expect to see better prices than what is being offered today.
He said new crop prices must rise or old crop prices fall some time in the next four months because there is a huge gap between the two. Old crop red lentil prices were around 41 cents per pound last week.
“At what point do the two converge? There’s really not a lot of time left,” he said.
Most of the trade is forecasting two million acres of lentils in Canada in 2009, a 24 percent increase over last year’s crop, with most of the increase expected to be in red lentils.
Al-Katib said the danger is if 2.5 million acres go in the ground. That extra supply would weigh down prices.
