A La Nina weather pattern has emerged but is not expected to devastate crops in North and South America this year, says a weather expert.
A significant build-up of cold water in the eastern Pacific Ocean over the past two weeks is providing weather watchers with a clear signal that a phenomenon usually associated with warmer and dryer growing conditions in both North and South America has arrived.
“We really are in La Nina already and it looks like it is going to continue to build up and become more intense as we go through the next few weeks,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. in Kansas.
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South America has already felt its effects with below average precipitation in parts of Argentina and southern Brazil. However, its impact there is most intense in December and usually moderates in January and February.
“It’s not usually something that persists so long that those areas have failing crops,” Lerner said.
South America’s early corn crop has been hurt but damage to the later-seeded soybean crop should be minimal because La Nina usually brings better precipitation to that region as the year progresses.
In a normal year, La Nina would be unwelcome news for growers in the U.S. corn belt, delivering below average rainfall and above average temperatures during the growing season.
However, Lerner expects that spring seeding and field work will be delayed in the U.S. Midwest this year because of extreme moisture this winter and early spring.
As a result, the anticipated hot and dry conditions brought by La Nina in May and June should be appreciated.
“The drying will actually be welcome when it comes into the Midwest because it will be pretty darn wet,” he said.
“Unless this event turns out to be substantially strong and persistent. If it does that, then all bets are off and we could end up going pretty dry.”
If the La Nina conditions don’t abate by late spring, the U.S. corn belt could be headed for a summer drought, although it is unlikely to be one of the magnitude of 1988 because of what is expected to be a wet start to the season.
Lerner is most concerned about the northwestern corn belt if La Nina lasts through the summer. Crops in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska and northern Iowa would be in jeopardy.
His best guess is that there could be lower corn yields in the northwest but good growing conditions in the remainder of the corn belt. Soybean crops in the eastern portion of the Midwest should do well, while there could be a drier finish in the western Midwest.
La Nina doesn’t tend to produce highly correlated weather in Canada unless it is particularly long and strong, in which case Alberta and western Saskatchewan could be drier than normal.
“There would be the potential that those areas would struggle for moisture,” Lerner said.
The opposite effect is anticipated for Eastern Australia, which should expect plenty of rain to aid in the growing of summer crops such as cotton and sorghum and “a much better moisture supply situation” when they plant winter crops such as wheat in April and May.
