Joanne Buth wants 21 million acres of canola in the ground – but not this year.
“It would be a wreck this year or in the next few, but with the new and expanding markets for canola oil we will need to reach that 15 million tonnes (of production) by 2015, if not before,” the Canola Council of Canada vice-president said during Canola Days, held as part of the recent Crop Pro-duction Week in Saskatoon.
“If we don’t meet the demand when it arrives, we’ll lose market share to other oils, and that would be a shame.”
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Saskatoon commodities expert Larry Weber shared her concerns, saying producers have shown in the past that they can rapidly ramp up production.
“You’ve shown you can increase acres quickly, but how and when you do it will be critical this time,” he told producers.
“My biggest fear for the canola market is that you guys go out there and jump your acres from 13.2 to 16 million this spring just because there’s $8 canola out there.”
But Buth said increasing canola production isn’t as simple as filling more air seeder tanks.
Expanding canola production on the Prairies will require new varieties, improved production on already existing acres and avoiding the pitfalls of overproduction.
She said Brassica juncea may be key to expanding production.
The mustard plant that creates canola quality oil has the potential to be grown profitably in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta in areas that generally avoid canola because of early heat and drought.
“Japan’s acceptance is key to the growth of this crop,” she said.
The canola council has been working to gain that acceptance.
“There was panic in the eyes of crushers’ faces when we told them that we expected acceptance by this coming August,” Buth said.
The council has completed feeding and oil trials and submitted them to Japanese buyers, who were initially concerned their livestock feeders wouldn’t know how to use the mustard-type product with its lower fibre and higher energy content.
“They have seen our trial results and now they’d like to replicate them in Asia, just in case animals feed differently there,” Buth said.
She said the council has answered most of the livestock concerns, but the more difficult subject of consumer acceptance has now been raised.
Japanese consumers accept canola oil, but retailers aren’t sure if they can convince consumers that oil from mustard can be just as good.
Agronomy is another limitation to expanded canola production. Producers need to use the best practices available to maximize production.
Terry Aberhart, an agronomist from Langenburg, Sask., who works with the consulting firm Agritrend, said most producers could increase their average production by as much as 25 percent.
The prairie average for canola was 30.5 bushels per acre in 2006, producing a nine million tonne crop. A 25 percent increase in production would boost production to 11.25 million tonnes with an average yield of 38 bu. per acre.
Aberhart said if producers can balance the nutrient supply to the crop, they can improve moisture use and boost yields in spite of poor moisture conditions.
“That really opens up the area of where canola can be successfully grown, pushing it south into areas where a shortage of moisture can be a common issue,” he said.
Aberhart said with proper agronomy the best canola crops should be able to yield four to eight bu. per inch of moisture available to the plant.
Buth said improved handling and storage will also increase marketed bushels. She said fewer seeds containing excess chlorophyll because of better harvesting techniques will improve oil yields and the financial returns for growers.
“Reducing heat damaged canola from improper storage too will deliver more top quality grain and put more dollars in producers’ pockets.”
Increasing producers’ bottom lines through oil content premiums is another way to increase the crush.
New varieties that produce more oil will catch on only if they don’t cut into bushel yields or when the industry pays for oil content, Buth said.
Plant breeding can add oil content, but it usually comes with reduced grain yields.
Breeding for resistance to diseases such as club root, sclerotinia, blackleg and seedling diseases will allow tighter rotations, also improving total production from existing producers.
“We can reach 15 million tonnes by 2015. But it will take an effort on the part of the whole industry.”
