A man who advises North America’s biggest companies on their futures has told prairie farmers they must adapt or get out.
“The best thing you can do for yourself is prepare to adapt,” Richard Worzel said during Crop Production Week’s Canola Days held last week in Saskatoon.
“There is no one crop or livestock, only change. Prepare to adapt and work together.”
He told producers biofuel forms a big part of prairie growers’ futures, but it won’t come easily and they need to prepare for challenges.
Read Also
Russian wheat exports start to pick up the pace
Russia has had a slow start for its 2025-26 wheat export program, but the pace is starting to pick up and that is a bearish factor for prices.
“Don’t count the petroleum industry out. They are big and powerful and they have been in business a long time and know how to deal with threats to their markets,” he said.
“Behind closed doors they will lobby against you. They will raise the spectre of organotoxins polluting the air as biofuels are burned …. They won’t make it easy for you.”
Farmers need to be active in their organizations and lobby for their own interests, he added.
Worzel said Canada’s federally mandated 10 percent renewable fuel requirement will represent six billion litres of biofuel once the mandate is fully in force.
“That is 600 million bushels of grain and oilseeds. At 30 bu. per acre you will need to commit 20 million acres to biofuels, one third of the seeded acres in Canada.”
Worzel said despite producer involvement in the development of biofuel refineries, he doesn’t see farmers owning the fuel production infrastructure in the long term.
“That is where big business will gravitate. I see farmers selling their production to those companies.”
Worzel’s analysis indicated that without exception commodity grain production is doomed.
“If you don’t attract younger farmers, your industry as you know it is doomed, too. You have to make your business as attractive as other opportunities,” he said.
“You will find customized, certified food production a premium niche for agriculture.”
The futurist said canola oil fits into that class of agriculture.
“You need to identify its traits and sell them to the public that are willing to pay a premium for them. You can’t do that on your own. You need your associations for that work.”
Worzel said producers must establish financing arrangements that will accommodate sudden market changes.
“The one thing you can’t count on is the wild cards. China’s food market is a wild card.”
China’s and India’s food consumption and protein use is rising faster than its population and growth of middle classes. As a result, Worzel said demand for food could rapidly outstrip supply, which would push commodity prices up dramatically.
“But you can’t count on it. It may not happen. You can only react to it and work to profit by it when it hits. Like everything else in your business.”
