Strong crop prices will likely draw more acreage out of summerfallow reserves in 2007, say analysts.
Soaring demand for biofuel crops like wheat and canola will exacerbate what has been a steady downward trend in summerfallow acreage since the early 1970s.
“We are looking at that trend to continue and perhaps even at a faster rate than normal because prices are so strong right now,” said Glenn Lennox, wheat analyst with Agriculture Canada.
His preliminary estimate is that the amount of idled cropland in Western Canada will reach a record low of 8.5 million acres in 2007, down from the previous 10-year average of 11.36 million acres.
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If that prediction comes to pass it would mean an extra 2.4 million acres of farmland devoted to various crops, compared to last year when summerfallow acreage was inflated by wet spring conditions in northeastern Saskatchewan.
Brian Clancey, editor of Stat Publishing, a markets newsletter for the special crops industry, agreed that demand for off-grade wheat and canola destined for the biofuel sector will cause growers to tap into their “massive reserves” of agricultural land.
“Clearly, western Canadian farmers have the capacity to increase total land in crop by a minimum of 1.6 million acres in 2007,” he stated in a recent article.
That would put a smile on the face of Blair McClinton, executive manager of the Saskatchewan Soil Conservation Association.
“From an environmental perspective, summerfallow is one of the worst practices that we’ve carried out on the Prairies,” he said.
It has contributed to wind and water erosion that in extreme cases has led to the disappearance of more than 50 percent of the organic matter in some prairie soils over the last 100 years.
While most farmers have abandoned the practice, there is still a substantial amount of land idled every year in the brown soil zone in southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta.
In 2006, there were 10.9 million acres of summerfallow in Canada, ranking it behind spring wheat and canola for total acreage, but ahead of crops like barley and oats.
McClinton acknowledged that strong crop prices might accelerate the move away from summerfallow, but was skeptical about how dramatic the change will be.
The downward trend line has been straight since the 1970s. It doesn’t seem to matter what crop prices do, farmers appear determined to rid themselves of idled land at their own pace.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a slight shift in the trend, but I think it is probably going to be more modest than really dramatic,” said McClinton.
Lennox agreed, noting that huge tracts of land have never come back into production in one fell swoop.
But he anticipates more summerfallow will be to wheat and durum acres in southeastern Saskatchewan in 2007. The same goes for canola and oats in the province’s northeast that is home to 70 percent of Western Canada’s summerfallow acreage.
“We expect big increases in those crops even without the summerfallow factor,” said Lennox.
McClinton said while that would be a positive environmental byproduct of the biofuel craze, there is a growing concern in conservation circles that pasture land and marginal farmland will be converted back into crop production to meet the growing needs of the biofuel industry.
A lot depends on what happens with the economics of livestock production over the coming years, said McClinton. But he would prefer that land stay in perennial forages rather than grow crops.
