David Phillips calls himself the last of the doubting Thomases.
For the last 15 years he continually shrugged off comments from old-timers telling him that the prairie winters are strikingly different when they were young.
Phillips was confident what they were observing were normal fluctuations and naturally occurring changes.
He doesn’t believe that anymore.
“The old-timers were right. The winters aren’t what they used to be,” Environment Canada’s senior climatologist told about 800 delegates attending Farm Credit Canada’s AgriSuccess Forum in Saskatoon.
“For example, here in Saskatchewan people think there is less snow. And there really is. I mean by a whopping amount.”
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Over the last 15 years there has been 25 percent less snow on the Prairies than there was in the 1960s and 1970s.
Even more astonishing has been the warming trend. The average winter temperature is 3.2 C warmer than it was 60 years ago.
Phillips said that is an eye-popping statistic. To put it in perspective, climatologists would normally get excited about a 0.5 C change over that same period.
“The evidence is absolutely clear that in the last five to 10 years our seasons are not what they used to be.”
Climate change effects have been more pronounced and predictable in the winters than summers.
Summer temperatures are an average of 0.5 C higher than they were 60 years ago, but conditions have been all over the map in that season. The last seven years have seen two of the hottest and one of the coldest summers on record. Extremes have become the norm.
While it is difficult to pinpoint what will happen next year, it is clear what the future has in store and that is hotter and drier conditions.
So what does it mean to prairie farmers?
“Climate change is about a warmer future but not necessarily a gloomy future,” said Phillips.
There is no doubt the warming trend will present some challenges for prairie farmers in the form of less rain and more droughts.
“One of the big issues will be soil moisture,” said Phillips.
More extreme weather could lead to additional problems such as soil erosion, heat stress on livestock and the increased incidence of hail damage.
But the changes will bring opportunities as well.
Milder winters will likely mean lower feeding costs for livestock producers and lower energy costs for every household.
Perhaps the biggest opportunity will be the longer growing season.
Phillips noted there are already about 30 more frost-free growing days than there were 100 years ago and that trend will likely continue.
The extension of the growing season will result in expanded cropping options for prairie farmers, who may be able to grow some high value specialty crops that could never be produced here before.
He noted that Ontario and British Columbia vintners will likely be beneficiaries of climate change as California grapes wither in the heat.
Agriculture needs to take advantage of climate change by doing things like developing more drought-resistant varieties to better deal with future conditions, said Phillips.
