Ron Plain has a modest proposal: move the American Thanksgiving from
November to July.
The crops may not be in and people may not yet feel thankful for them,
but holding the holiday in the middle of the summer would save pig
farmers money.
“Thanksgiving has always created problems for us because we tend to get
this huge run of hogs in the fourth quarter, and Thanksgiving comes at
a time that we just don’t need to shut down packing plants for a
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holiday,” said Plain.
During the autumn, pig supplies surge. During the summer, they drop.
It’s a yearly pattern that has not been eliminated by industrial-style
hog operations that were expected to iron this seasonality out of the
market.
Sow fertility is affected by sunlight. Deep in pigs’ genetic codes is a
regulator that discourages sows from getting pregnant in the autumn, as
daylight hours decrease, because litters born in winter often wouldn’t
survive the cold.
But pregnancy is encouraged during the winter, as daylight hours
slowly increase, because litters born in the spring have excellent
chances of survival.
Unlike the majority of modern Canadian hog barns, U.S. barns generally
allow in natural light through windows and movable walls, which are
opened in summer for ventilation.
But summer hog production in the United States is hampered by the heat.
Hogs’ most productive temperature is around 15 C, so in the dog days of
summer, slaughter hog weights decline as the pigs lack appetite.
In the autumn, however, growing and feeding conditions are ideal for
pigs, so they mature faster and tend to weigh more.
Plain said the difference in fertility and weight gain means that an
average slaughter plant will produce 20 percent more pork in November
than in June. The difference used to be much larger, but a 20 percent
swing is enough to occasionally knock the market off, as occurred in
1998.
This fall, as usual, hog prices have slumped as slaughter hog
marketings and weights have risen. The marketings are beginning to
decline, and prices could increase.
But the coming Thanksgiving holiday is holding back gains, Plain said,
because most U.S. plants will be closed for the day.
Those extra pigs will keep the packers busy until the second week of
December, when producers will likely start to see prices rise.
