Canaryseed is set for another year of good prices, say analysts.
That’s good news for producers lucky enough to have a good crop and it
mitigates damage suffered by those whose had poor yields.
“Prices are pretty decent,” said canaryseed market analyst John
Duvenaud of Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory.
Canaryseed bids range from 30-32 cents per pound. Duvenaud believes
that is the low end of this winter’s range. The upper end is probably
40 cents. With average yields, farmers usually begin making money at 15
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cents per lb.
Duvenaud said production of canaryseed is estimated to be much higher
this year, 185,000 tonnes compared to 113,000 tonnes last year.
However, about a third of the crop is not yet in the bin due to poor
harvesting weather.
Increased production usually means falling prices, but that hasn’t
happened because supplies are still considered tight, even though it
turns out producers had more stored than expected.
“There’s a lot of canary out in the old wooden bins in the back
pastures which guys have just left,” said Duvenaud. “There’s a lot of
that that has come out of the woodwork.”
Statistics Canada recently raised its stocks number for the start of
2002-03 to 30,000, an increase of 20,000 tonnes.
“All of a sudden we’re not so incredibly tight, but we’re still tight,”
said Duvenaud.
Harvest is acting as a lid on prices now, Duvenaud added, but once that
eases, there’s more room to move up.
Bruno Sabourin of Parent Seed Farms in St. Joseph, Man., said supply
worries could still jar the market.
Much of the Saskatchewan canaryseed crop still hasn’t been harvested.
Canaryseed is hardy and can often survive a winter in the fields, but
poor conditions will hurt it, which would make supplies tighter than
expected.
“That’s a potential upside,” Sabourin said.
Terry Karwandy of Saskatchewan Agriculture said 37 percent of the
provincial canaryseed crop was still uncombined as of Oct. 20. Sixteen
percent was lying in swath and 21 percent was still standing.
That means up to 222,000 acres of production are still vulnerable to
downgrading and weather losses.
Weather played havoc with this year’s crop as it did last year when
drought in the production zone of western Saskatchewan led to only
105,000 tonnes being produced.
Prices rose dramatically last crop year, causing farmers well outside
the traditional zone, in places like Montana, North Dakota and
Manitoba’s Red River valley, to seed canaryseed this spring.
But drought also affected North Dakota and Montana, and the Red River
valley crops were damaged by excessive rain in June and scorching heat
in July. Many Manitoba crops have been disappointing.
“If you happened to sneak through those two events, you had a hell of a
crop, but most guys didn’t,” said
Duvenaud.
Sabourin said farmers also had problems this year with wild millet, a
weed whose seeds are about the same size as canaryseed and are
difficult to remove from the harvested crop.
Canaryseed is bought by bird seed packagers. The least committed of
these are those whose feed is for wild birds. They will quickly switch
to other commodities if canaryseed becomes costly, Duvenaud said.
Brand-name birdseed makers don’t like to compromise on quality and are
willing to increase their bids to get crop.
Sabourin said some better paying markets such as Mexico and Europe are
steadily buying canaryseed.
