The cloud of gloom hanging over Manitoba hog producers also darkens an analysis of the industry by a leading agricultural economist.
Ed Tyrchniewicz, former dean of the University of Manitoba’s agriculture school, says the provincial industry is facing threats on many fronts at once and needs to find solutions.
“We’ve got an environment for the pork sector … that is beset by uncertainty,” said Tyrchniewicz.
The study by Tyrchniewicz and analyst Heather Gregory was commissioned by Agriculture Canada. Manitoba government ag analysts feel the report is too gloomy and overplays the limits on the industry.
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Tyrchniewicz said short feed supplies are probably the biggest challenge for the pork industry and the biggest problem for farmers.
“We’ve moved from a feed surplus to a feed deficit situation and we are likely going to stay in that position.”
Importing American corn or feed grains from the western Prairies will make Manitoba hogs more expensive to produce, “decreasing Manitoba’s competitiveness.”
Fusarium is the main cause of the feed slump, which has seen farmers in the Red River valley switch from cereals and has made many crops impossible to feed to pigs.
Tyrchniewicz said the industry also has a problem with excess slaughter capacity.
Manitoba farmers are not marketing enough slaughter hogs within the province to support a second shift at the Brandon Maple Leaf plant, but the company is also having troubles finding enough workers to staff a hoped-for second shift.
Tyrchniewicz also said Manitoba weanling and slaughter hog exporters face dangers with cross-border trade, since a disease outbreak or country-of-origin labelling could cause massive disruptions to Manitoba’s hog flow.
Tyrchniewicz’s view, which he describes as “cautious and realistic,” is mainly based on research conducted by provincial and federal government departments, industry research and interviews with hog industry players.
He said it could be seen as a wake-up call for decision makers who need to tackle these issues.
He pointed out that he is not forecasting a collapse of the industry, but is highlighting the issues he thinks have to be faced.
“We’re not saying the industry is going to crash,” said Tyrchniewicz. “But we’ve had a heck of a good run. Production has essentially doubled since 1996. You can’t really expect this kind of growth to continue in perpetuity.”
Manitoba Agriculture hog market analyst Janet Honey agreed there is much uncertainty in the Manitoba industry right now. But she said some of the problems Tyrchniewicz sees as dire may be less daunting.
Drier growing conditions, such as those in the Red River valley this spring, could substantially reduce the fusarium problem. Other agriculture analysts have said the valley has suffered from above average moisture for a decade and will likely be drier in the future.
Honey said new high-yielding feed grains may become available for Manitoba farmers, substantially reducing the feed deficit.
The value of the Canadian dollar could also affect feed grain prices, she said.
Overall Honey thinks long-term projections of feed shortfalls have to rest on too many assumptions and those projections need to be treated cautiously.
Manitoba pig producers are watching to see what happens with American country-of-origin labelling. That must be sorted out before any long-term projections can be feasibly completed.
“Until country-of-origin labelling is confirmed one way or the other, it’s very hard to say how the industry will develop,” said Honey.
