Another chickpea crop failure in Mexico should keep kabuli prices firm through the summer months, say analysts.
“They had the rain at the wrong time again for the third year in a row,” said Agricore United chickpea trader Martin Chidwick.
Reports filtering out of the key kabuli exporting nation say the untimely harvest showers damaged as much as 40 percent of the crop.
As a producer of the highly sought after 12 millimetre product, Mexico is universally recognized as the price-setter in kabuli markets.
Another crop wreck there is supportive of already high prices for large calibre product. New-crop prices for nine mm chickpeas hover around 35 cents per pound, while 10 mm contracts are about 40 cents per lb.
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Chidwick said there is no better indication of supply problems than the Europeans paying good prices for American nine mm product as far out as December.
“It tells you they anticipate (kabulis) are going to be tough to find. They are getting coverage, so I’m encouraged by that.”
Some trade analysts are predicting a worldwide shortage of kabulis for the next two years due to the series of poor crops in Canada and Mexico, he said.
Mexican exporters are not expected to be in any hurry to market the 2005 crop, hanging on for something in the range of a $200 US per tonne premium for their 12 mm kabulis.
“There are markets that will pay that because they need those nice, big, white, fat chickpeas,” said Chidwick.
He doesn’t anticipate the poor Mexican harvest will increase Canadian chickpea acres. Growers have already had a long time to adjust to high prices and there is a limited amount of disease-free seed for them to work with.
Agriculture Canada is forecasting 133,380 acres of chickpeas, up 15 percent from last year’s 116,090 acres. Chidwick thinks plantings will be lower than that because he believes the 2004-05 crop was closer to 70,000 acres.
Even if acreage comes in at the higher Agriculture Canada number, there should be a home for all the kabulis, which account for the bulk of chickpea plantings.
“I would anticipate that as long as quality comes off the field then we would happily move it,” said Chidwick, who thinks 200,000 to 300,000 acres is sustainable in Canada.
Turkey’s harvest is the next one for growers to watch. It is one of the world’s biggest producers and exporters of chickpeas. Harvest should be in full swing by July.
Decent conditions
Murad Al-Katib, president of Saskcan Pulse Trading Inc., said his Turkish contacts tell him growing conditions have been decent to date.
“They had a timely rain in April so they are expecting yields to be consistent with their long-term average. We’re not expecting any type of crop failure situation.”
Supplies of lentils and chickpeas are so low in Turkey that even a good harvest wouldn’t be too price-depressing.
“It certainly won’t drop prices down dramatically from where the levels are now,” he said.
That is especially true for large calibre product. The biggest kabuli coming out of Turkey is a nine mm chickpea, so the Turkish harvest tends to affect product in the seven to nine mm range but not the more lucrative 10 mm category.
