Prairie hog numbers are stumbling and even declining, reversing a trend that has seen the prairie pig herd continuously expand in recent years.
But while Statistics Canada’s first quarter hog report says Alberta and Saskatchewan numbers have fallen, and Manitoba’s are barely rising, Ontario’s herd is expanding at a heady pace.
Quebec’s pig herd is in a slow-growth mode, much like Manitoba’s, the federal agency’s hog inventories survey says. But that province’s farmers don’t have the same problems as Manitoba’s.
The numbers revealed different dynamics in different regions, said Manitoba Agriculture hog market analyst Janet Honey.
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“It’s a switch in trends,” said Honey.
Until this quarter prairie hog numbers, especially in Manitoba, have tended to increase more quickly than in Ontario and Quebec.
But as of April 1, Alberta’s breeding herd is one percent smaller than at the same time last year, and Saskatchewan’s smaller herd has fallen by 1.6 percent.
Saskatchewan’s population of weanlings has dropped by 2.1 percent and Alberta’s has only increased by 0.4 percent. Both Saskatchewan and Alberta have an overall smaller number of pigs on farm this year than last year, the study says.
Manitoba’s sow herd is bigger than last year, the report said, but only by 1.5 percent, which is a far smaller rate than in most recent reports.
Weanling numbers are up 6.5 percent, but feeder pig numbers are down by 0.8 percent. Overall, Manitoba’s pig herd is up by 1.8 percent over the first quarter last year.
Ontario’s breeding herd grew by 6.3 percent in the same period, producing 5.6 percent more weanlings and 2.6 percent more feeder pigs, for an overall increase of 3.9 percent, the report said.
Perry Mohr, general manager of Manitoba Pork Marketing Co-operative, said Manitoba’s booming growth appears to have stalled by low hog prices and producers are becoming cautious.
“The overall mood of the industry is somewhat pessimistic,” said Mohr. “We’ve seen a lot of equity eroded in the last year.”
Mack Rennie, general manager of Alberta’s Western Hog Exchange, said producers there also feel glum.
“You can imagine how a guy gets pretty bitter,” said Rennie.
“In the winter he’s leaving $40 a hog on the table, and now he’s leaving $11-$15 on the table.
“He’s pretty bitter when he’s doing all that work and losing all that money.”
Prairie pig producers have seen feed shortages and high feed prices. Southeastern Manitoba has a long-standing feed production problem because of fusarium and relies on substantial imports of American corn, while Alberta and Saskatchewan producers have seen their usual feed supplies shrink because of widespread drought.
Many western prairie producers used American corn this year, and that hurt, Rennie said.
“Alberta was the most expensive place to feed a hog this winter,” he said.
“We didn’t have any Alberta advantage.”
Feed has been more readily available in Eastern Canada, allowing the Ontario herd to rapidly expand, Statistics Canada said. But Quebec’s expansion has been held back by a moratorium on new hog barn development.
Mohr said western producers have been hurt by lingering low hog prices made worse by high feed costs exacerbated by a strengthening Canadian dollar.
That means that prairie expansion will likely be slower than in recent years, even when profitable prices return.
“I expect many people have their operating lines right at the top and before a banker is going to lend you more money, you’ve got to get your operating line back in decent shape,” said Mohr.
Rennie said a good harvest of barley and wheat would leave producers much better off and allow them to think of future expansion. But if more feed problems develop, it will shove some toward the exit.
“I’ve heard lots of rumblings about whether it’s D time: decision time,” said Rennie.
“Some guys are going to get out if it doesn’t get better soon.”
