Prairie feed grain prices are better than many expected because farmers still have some pride in their grain.
“If I sold (barley) at $3 a bushel last year, I’d have a tough time selling this year at two bucks,” said southern Alberta grain broker Doug Chambers.
“Every week we talk to someone who has not sold one bushel of their feed grains.”
Barley is selling for $2.45-$2.50 per bu. delivered to Lethbridge. Southern Manitoba prices are lower, at $2.15-$2.20 per bu. delivered because of competition from big supplies of feed wheat.
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The yield estimates for wheat and soybeans were neutral to bullish, but these were largely a sideshow when compared with corn.
Overall in North America there is still a glut of feed grains. Last week’s United States Department of Agriculture grain stocks report gave the corn market another slap, projecting that U.S. corn stocks would rise by eight percent from its March expectation, to 2.215 billion bu. at the end of the crop year.
The USDA said livestock and ethanol plants were consuming less corn than expected and export sales were lower.
Corn prices have been weak for months and weakened more after the report was released, but barley prices in Canada have fared better than many hoped. Chambers said farmers have hung on longer than expected to their barley, with many meeting cash flow needs by taking advantage of a recent surge in canola prices.
“The rally in soybeans allowed guys to sell their canola for a buck a bushel better and they found that way to get their cash flow instead,” said Chambers.
“Before that rally, some guys in February and March (had) been more willing to sell their barley.”
Errol Anderson of Pro Market Communications said neither buyers nor sellers are willing to fold their hands.
“We’ll probably have more of the same. It’s a standoff. The growers aren’t selling and the feedlots aren’t really buying,” said Anderson.
“The cash market’s really quiet.”
If farmers want to clear out some feed grains, they should look for short-term opportunities that may arise during seeding. Many farmers won’t want to deliver then and road bans and other springtime restrictions may crimp the supply available for users, prompting them to offer better bids.
“The farmgate prices might be good then,” said Anderson.
Chambers said the southern Manitoba feed barley market is much weaker than the Alberta market. Hog feeders in Manitoba have lots of feed wheat to choose from, so their bids for barley are weak.
“At this time it’s hard to find a bit that’s even half decent,” said Anderson.
