If farmers are counting on world trade talks to give them better markets and prices, they are peering at a distant horizon, says a leading American grain industry analyst.
“There is great skepticism about that ever happening,” said Morton Sosland, the editor of World Grain magazine, in a speech to the Canada Grains Council.
Sosland said the World Trade Organization’s agricultural trade negotiator, Stuart Harbinson of Hong Kong, was unable to find much common ground among the world’s major agricultural exporters this winter. That makes hopes dim that a deal can be reached by 2005 to begin eliminating export subsidies and import controls.
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But even if a deal could be reached in 2005, real change would not be implemented until about 2014. Sosland said the most optimistic realistic estimate is that markets could be opened up and subsidies ended around 2020.
Sosland said the disagreement between the United States and Europe over the war in Iraq shows those governments are willing to clash over contrasting visions.
He said the governments have not prepared their farmers for the massive changes that subsidy elimination and free market access would bring, so they are unlikely to quickly move in that direction.
Germain Denis, the executive director of the International Grains Council, didn’t share Sosland’s pessimism.
In an interview Denis said “it would be wise to keep the focus on the big results rather than being unduly pessimistic because some milestones may not have been delivered as hoped for.”
His optimism was limited, however.
“It looks like a very difficult negotiation,” said Denis, who is based in the United Kingdom.
“I hope it’s successful, but it’s a tough world out there.”
Sosland said he is a fervent believer in the virtues of free markets, but said his skepticism about the outcome of the world trade talks is based on decades of observation.
“I’ve dreamed about it for so long,” he said in an interview. “I’ve preached about it. I’m a firm believer in it. I just doubt it’s going to happen.”
