Wheat prices have slumped because farmers around the world have harvested big crops in the past year.
But prairie farmers shouldn’t assume world wheat acreage will sink this year in response, says the Canadian Wheat Board.
Prices for competing crops are also poor, so the world’s wheat growers aren’t likely to make any major shifts.
“Our estimate is that the (wheat) area should be up a bit,” said wheat board weather analyst Bruce Burnett.
That doesn’t mean world wheat production will be as large as 2004’s, but so far most wheat crops growing now are doing well.
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“This year the plantings got off to a good start,” said Burnett.
Winter wheat crops in the United States, western Europe, Ukraine and Russia were planted into good moisture in the autumn and moisture conditions remain good.
Ukrainian and Russian winter wheat crops can suffer significant winterkill by frigid temperatures, but so far little damage has been noted.
Chinese wheat area appears larger than last year, halting a trend of shrinking wheat acreage.
“We think there’s going to be a modest increase,” said Burnett.
Dryness on the north China plain is beginning to concern farmers, but most of the area is irrigated, mitigating the effect.
“We don’t expect much to change on the yield side,” said Burnett.
India’s wheat crop was planted into moist soils, but a weak monsoon season has left the growing crop drier than farmers want. The Indian government still predicts a large crop, but continued dryness would undermine the outlook.
Argentina’s wheat crop looks big, but Australia’s was hurt by drought.
Durum growers in Canada are not going to be helped by weather conditions in the Mediterranean, which have been good for the winter durum crop there. Since November, bountiful rains have created a third consecutive year of good moisture.
Recent droughts in North Africa have created sudden surges in world durum prices, but there is little hope for that this year. Good rains are needed in the crucial March-April pre-harvest period, but so far the crop looks good.
Burnett said the wheat board expects prairie farmers to follow normal rotations. With good moisture, most crops will be seeded without the drought fear that gripped the Prairies last winter.
“The moisture situation is reasonably good, so we won’t see big shifts,” said Burnett.
In eastern Manitoba and parts of the Peace River country, excess moisture is likely to foul up seeding. Many crops in both regions are still standing and farmers need the ground to dry enough to clear those crops before seeding.
Durum acreage should be steady, Burnett said. Durum prices have slid but “there’s still a premium in the market.”
The same goes for barley. Barley prices are poor overall, but there is still a premium for malting barley.
