GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
Ice canola futures are posting $3/tonne gains to start so far this morning after easing slightly lower yesterday. Chicago soybean futures are showing early gains of 5 to 8 cents/bu, with the products (meal/oil) also slightly higher.
CBOT corn futures are up 3 cents this morning, but wheat markets are mixed…spring wheat futures steady to 3 cents higher, but the winter wheats are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower. On Tuesday, wheat futures finished with double digits gains for a second consecutive session on drier US HRW crop conditions for the remainder of April. Corn benefited from the wheat rally.
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AM Market Report – April 14, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain futures prices are modestly firmer to start the morning…
US winter wheat growing weather and North American corn, soybean canola and spring wheat planting weather are taking center stage in the markets.
Latest on the war in the Middle East…
– Trump hints truce deal with Iran might be close
– Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed
– China s Xi vows closer coordination with Russia as Iran war drags on
– North American stock markets hold near all-time highs on peace hopes
US President Donald Trump played down the prospect of renewed fighting in the war with Iran, even as questions remain over Tehran s nuclear program and access to the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking to ABC News on Tuesday and as reported by Bloomberg, Trump said extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary, hinting at near-term progress toward a deal to end the near seven-week conflict. In a Fox Business interview, he said the war is close to over.
An initial round of peace talks between the two sides ended in Pakistan on Sunday without a deal. A second meeting hasn t been agreed, though work has been ongoing this week to secure a new time and place, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said Bloomberg. Talks might restart over the next two days, Trump told the New York Post, which would mean by Thursday.
In Other News
– Hormuz mission talks… Discussion led by Britain and France of steps to open the Strait of Hormuz will include possible financial sanctions on Iran if it keeps the waterway blocked, and steps to work with industry to resume shipping. Paris and London, who have sought to take leadership of the initiative after previous military and political meetings, are seeking to show their willingness to play a role in restoring freedom of navigation once the conflict ends. The offices of France’s President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer say they will co-chair a video conference on Friday of some 40 countries that are willing to contribute to the multilateral mission.
The meeting will reportedly center on four working groups: championing freedom of navigation and maritime security, pursuing economic measures against Iran if the strait stays closed, securing the release of seafarers and trapped ships, and working with industry to support their readiness to resume transit.
Iran has largely closed the strait to ships apart from its own since the start of US-Israeli air strikes on February 28. On Monday, Washington imposed a blockade of ships entering or exiting Iranian ports.
Trump has called on other countries to help impose the blockade. Britain, France and others say they will not do so, as this would mean joining the war, but they would be willing to help keep the strait open when fighting ends.
“The United States needs to get its act together. It’s paradoxical at the moment because the ones that are most unpredictable are the US,” said a senior European diplomat.
– IMF cuts growth outlook, warns of potential global recession… The International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook on Tuesday due to Iran war-driven energy price spikes and supply disruptions and warned that the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsened and oil stays above $100/barrel through 2027. With massive uncertainty over the Middle East conflict gripping finance officials gathering for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the IMF presented three growth scenarios: weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds.
The World Economic Outlook’s most optimistic “reference scenario” assumes a short-lived Iran war and forecasts 3.1% real GDP growth for 2026, down 0.2 percentage point from its previous forecast in January. Under this scenario, oil prices average $82/barrel for all of 2026, a decline from recent levels of around $100 for the Brent benchmark futures price.
Absent the Middle East conflict, the IMF said it would have upgraded its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%, due to a continued technology investment boom, lower interest rates, less-severe US tariffs and fiscal support in some countries. But the war has created a far bigger risk to the global economy than President Donald Trump’s initial wave of steep tariffs did a year ago, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.
“What’s happening in the Gulf is potentially much, much larger, and that’s what our scenarios are kind of documenting,” he said.
Under an “adverse scenario” of a longer conflict that keeps oil prices around $100/barrel this year and $75 in 2027, the IMF predicts global GDP growth would fall to 2.5% this year. And the IMF’s worst-case “severe scenario” assumes an extended and deepening conflict and much higher oil prices that prompt major financial market dislocations and tighter financial conditions, slashing global growth to 2.0%.
“This would mean a close call for a global recession,” the IMF said, adding that growth has been below that level only four times since 1980…with the last two severe recessions in 2009, following the financial crisis, and in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged. Gourinchas said that a number of countries would be in outright recessions under this scenario, with oil prices averaging $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027. Prices at this level for an extended time would also increase expectations “that inflation is here to stay,” prompting wider price increases and wage hike demands.
– Tensions between the US and China over the Iran war and President Trump s decision to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz have been on the rise this week and are worth keeping an eye on ahead of a key mid-May summit meeting that s already been postponed once.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that China had been an ?unreliable global partner during the Middle East war by hoarding oil supplies and limiting exports of certain goods, such as rare-earth minerals, Reuters reported. Bessent compared China s behavior to the country s hoarding of medical supplies during the pandemic. Bessent told reporters he had spoken with Chinese officials about the issue, the report said, and dodged a question about whether the dispute would derail Trump’s planned to visit ?Beijing. He reiterated that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a very good ?working relationship.
Meanwhile, China on Tuesday criticized the US blockade of Iranian ports as dangerous and irresponsible, the South China Morning Post reported. Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told reporters at a daily briefing in Beijing on Tuesday that the US action would only inflame tensions, escalate the situation and undermine an already fragile ceasefire , and that would further jeopardize the safety of navigation in the strait, the report said.
Trump on Sunday threatened to impose a 50% tariff on China, after a news report said Beijing was preparing to deliver a shipment of air defense systems to Iran.
– Rice prices in Asia soaring… Rice prices in Asia surged the most in more than two years on concerns about the supply outlook after the cost of fuel and fertilizer jumped due to the Iran war, prompting some Thai farmers to leave their crop in the ground, Bloomberg reports. Thai white rice 5% broken, an Asian benchmark, jumped 10% to US $423/tonne in the week ended April 8, the biggest gain since August 2023…an early sign that rising input costs are starting to impact the market.
Some farmers in Thailand have suspended rice cultivation because their profits simply aren t enough to cover the ballooning costs, said Oscar Tjakra, a senior commodities analyst at Rabobank in Singapore. The challenging situation has been compounded by a long dry season, which has significantly reduced yields and tightened supplies of the current crop, he added.
– US Farm Bureau survey real impact of fertilizer availability and price … A survey by the US Farm Bureau shows fertilizer pre-booking rates varied significantly by region, with just 19% of Southern producers reporting fertilizer purchases secured ahead of the season, compared to 30% in the Northeast, 31% in the West and 67% in the Midwest, reflecting differences in planting decision timelines and exposure to recent price increases.
Fertilizer affordability challenges are most acute in the South and Northeast, but remain a concern for farmers across all regions. Around 70% of respondents report being unable to afford all the fertilizer they need. Farm diesel prices have increased 46% since the end of February, raising costs for fieldwork, fertilizer transport and irrigation during both planting and growing seasons. Nearly six in 10 farmers report worsening finances, reflecting rising fertilizer and fuel costs during spring planting and underscoring the urgent need for immediate economic assistance to keep farms gates open.
Rising input costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East are adding strain to an already challenging farm economy, said the survey. More than 5,700 farmers responded to the survey, which was conducted April 3 through April 11.
– Carney unveils temporary cut to gas, diesel taxes… After securing a majority in the House of Commons, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a tax break on gas and diesel aimed at providing some relief for Canadians dealing with higher energy costs. The temporary tax break will begin April 20 and remain in place until Sept 7. The government said it is expected to shave 10 cents per litre from the cost of regular gasoline and reduce the price of diesel by four cents per litre.
The measure is being presented as a response to rising energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East that has dramatically reduced oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the fuel tax break will not have a direct impact on Canadian farm operations, as farmers are already exempt from this tax on their own marked farm diesel. It ll help with fuelling the family car, but not on-farm equipment fuel usage. But others in the agricultural supply chain may benefit more. Seed deliveries, all the trucks on the road that are in and out of farmyards, commercial trucks will benefit from that tax exemption.
The Carney Liberals crossed the majority threshold Monday night thanks to three byelection wins that followed five floor-crossings in recent months, including one New Democrat and four Conservative MPs deciding to sit on the government side of the House of Commons.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 317.74 points higher on Tuesday to settle at 48,535.99, and the S&P 500 up 81.14 points at 6,967.38. Canada s S&P/TSX composite index gained 223 points to 34,102. Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 61 points.
Global markets are muted but turning higher this morning following yesterday s rally, as investors evaluated a ?range of corporate earnings reports while monitoring the evolving situation in the Middle East. Wall Street futures are narrowly mixed.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote that the Middle East developments, including US President Donald Trump saying that talks with Iran could resume within the next two days, had eased investor fears about a stagflationary shock. They noted that investors continue to believe the conflict will be a temporary one. But putting much stock in Trump s daily erratic rantings can never be trusted.
The June US Dollar Index is up 0.067 at 97.975. The Canadian dollar is steady against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.72 US cents.
May crude oil futures are down a dime at US $91.18/barrel, but all other contracts are up less than $1/barrel. Oil prices are steady to edging higher this morning as investors assessed prospects for renewed US Iran talks and the potential for supply to be released from the Middle East, where exports remain constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The trajectory of oil prices will likely hinge less on battlefield developments and more on diplomatic momentum. ?Markets are increasingly reacting to headlines around negotiations rather than troop deployments, said Priyanka Sachdeva, ?senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. Each signal of renewed dialogue has been met with price declines, suggesting that traders are systematically unwinding the war premium embedded into crude earlier this month.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading 5 to 8 cents/bu higher this morning, with the nearby contracts leading. Bean futures were lower on Tuesday with contracts down 3 to 6 cents across most months. Soymeal futures are around $1 to $2/ton this morning after tipping 20 cents to $2.20/ton lower yesterday. Soyoil futures are 38 to 50 points higher right now after sliding 6 to 61 points lower on Tuesday.
Traders, while keeping an eye on the probabilities of a US-China trade meeting in a month, are also beginning to focus on US acreage shifts from corn to beans. US soy planting is ahead of average…and while some near-term rain delays are likely…it should be a long-term benefit.
China continues to favor soybeans from Brazil over the US due to price and the geopolitical tensions.
Brazil s soybean crop was estimated at a record large 179.15 MMT by CONAB, a 1.3 MMT hike from their previous number in March. Yield was hiked 0.36 bushel/acre to a record average of 54.96 bu/acre. Argentina’s soybean farmers, beginning harvest, will most likely face delays due to rain.
Chicago corn futures are rising 3 cents this morning. The corn market closed Tuesday s session on a mixed note, with front months up 1 to 2 cents, while other contracts ended fractionally lower.
On Tuesday, USDA reported private export sales of 316,000 tonnes to Mexico (65,000 for 2025/26, 139,000 MT for 2026/27, and 112,000 MT for 2027/28), with another 120,000 tonnes sold to unknown destinations for the current marketing year.
CONAB data pegged the Brazilian corn crop raised by 1.3 MMT to 139.57 MMT. The second crop was hiked by 0.68 MMT to 109.12 MMT, as the first crop was up 0.62 MMT to 27.35 MMT. Brazil s second crop is almost fully planted.
Though US corn planting is 5% completed and near normal levels at this time of the year, rain could delay fieldwork next week. But the rain is much needed for soil moisture. There s still some chance fertilizer availability issues due to the military action in Iran and the Middle East could change the 2026 US acreage mix…lessen corn acres in favor of soybeans.
US wheat markets are mixed this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are steady to 3 cents higher, but HRW is down 2 to 3 cents and SRW is losing 2 to 4 cents. The US wheat complex posted strength across its three exchanges on Tuesday…spring wheat ended 11 to 13 cents higher on the day. Yesterday was a second consecutive session of good gains posted in spring wheat that lifted futures back above their respective 20-day moving averages.
The next 7 days are expected to remain dry from the western part of Kansas to the panhandle of Texas according to the NOAA 7-day forecast (HRW region). SRW area is still expected to see 1 to 3 inches. Fertilizer supply concerns and the drier forecast for the US HRW wheat belt through to the end of April are price supportive.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures ended modestly lower on Tuesday, pressured by declines in crude oil and strength in the Canadian dollar.
Crude prices moved lower amid the possibility of renewed US and Iran talks aimed at ending their Middle East conflict. The drop in oil weighed on the broader vegetable oil complex, including canola, given its link to biofuel demand. At the same time, a firmer Canadian dollar added additional pressure by making Canadian exports slightly less competitive on the global market.
May canola fell $1.20 yesterday to close at $704.10/tonne, and November eased 80 cents to $717.
For today… canola futures are rebounding $3/tonne so far this morning. Nearby May canola is currently up $3.20 at $707.30/tonne…trying to hold the line just above chart support at its 50-day moving average ($705).
A recent pull back in crude oil prices is limiting rally potential for world vegoil markets, and in turn our canola market. Talk of potential renewed US-Iran talks raised expectations of improved supply, dampening biodiesel demand. But talk is cheap…and words from either the White House or Iran cannot be trusted. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains a traffic restricted area.
With ICE canola crush margins hitting record levels of $350/tonne last week, the canola market appears to be undervalued on a crush basis compared to the soybean product markets.
So far this morning… CBOT soy complex futures are slightly higher, while Malaysian palm oil is steady, coming off recent weak price action. EU rapeseed futures are steady, with a price chart pattern somewhat mirroring our canola.
Soyoil remains on the canola trader radar…recovering this morning after falling from its early April high. But the lingering potential for a large double top at 70 cents/pound remains a technical concern. It will take a close over the April 7 high of 70.49 cents to negate the formation, a move that an escalation with Iran would likely be able to inspire.
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