The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: Spring wheat futures posted gains for the second consecutive session. Spring wheat September futures jumped by 20.5 cents per bushel to settle at US$6.49 per bushel. Spring wheat markets led the winter wheat contracts with Kansas City and Chicago wheat contracts moving up by 11 and 15 cents per bushel, respectively. Corn futures provided support with the nearby contracts moving up by 12 cents per bushel. Support also came from Matif milling contracts which posted gains of 0.4 to 0.6 per cent in today’s session. This move in wheat over the past two days has impressive given that harvest pressure in ongoing in the Southern Plains. That is good news for the wheat market.

The Good: Wheat markets were strong today with nearby futures moving up by 10 cents per bushel to close the day…

The Bad: Canola futures finished the day higher as the vegetable oil complex staged a significant rally. The November contract closed the day up by C$24.40 per tonne to settle at C$724.20 per tonne. Nearby soybean futures increased by 21 cents per bushel in the nearby September contract to close at US$10.40 per bushel. Soybean oil futures increased by 2.5 to 2.6 per cent in today’s trading action. That was good news for canola futures. The bad news is that the weather forecast for Western Canada is calling for hot, dry weather over the next two weeks. The bad news is that canola prospects for 2025 are likely to decline if the hot, dry weather continues through the end of the month.

The Ugly: The USDA Acreage report came in close to market expectations with all wheat acreage estimated at 45.5 million acres. The other spring wheat area was estimated at 10.0 million acres. The ugly news is that HRS area was estimated at 9.44 million acres which is the lowest area in over 40 years. The drop in HRS area has been ugly since 2019 with sown area moving from 12.7 million acres to 9.44 million acres. Spring wheat futures remain in a sideways trading range despite the drop in area this year.