SAO PAULO,Brazil (Reuters) — Dry weather is limiting soybean development in Brazil’s southernmost state, putting farmers on alert there at the same time as excessive rain is set to disrupt early harvest work in central areas of the country, according to meteorologists.
Expectations for the 2025 soybean harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, are sitting above 170 million tonnes. However, output in Rio Grande do Sul, where rain has been scarce, is essential for achieving the target, which would be a record, according to some private consultancies.
“Some areas have gone more than 15 to 20 days without significant showers, and soybean development is starting to be somewhat compromised,” said agrometeorologist Loana Cardoso from Rio Grande do Sul’s agriculture agency Seapi.
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The state, which borders drought-stricken and large grain producer Argentina, could harvest more than 20 million tonnes if the most upbeat forecasts are confirmed.
“We are not yet in the critical periods of the crop … but we are in a state of alert,” Cardoso said.
Rural Clima agrometeorologist Ludmila Camparotto said the state’s northwestern region, one of the most relevant, is not expected to have rain for much of January.
Alexandre Nascimento, managing partner and meteorologist at Nottus, said regular rains should return after Jan. 20 and be more frequent through February.
There are also concerns about excessive rainfall disrupting the start of the centre-west harvest, said Camparotto.
In the northeastern region of Rio Grande do Sul, accumulated rainfall over the next week will exceed, at best, 20 millimetres, while in the behemoth farm state of Mato Grosso, some areas will receive around 170 mm.
Nascimento confirmed expectations of heavy rainfall in the first half of the year in central Brazil.
“The crops that would already be harvested during this period will probably have problems due to wintering,” he said.
