Exports from Argentina, Russia, Mexico and Turkey expected to decline due to reduced supplies caused by smaller crops
Canada is facing vastly reduced competition from four of its key competitors in the kabuli chickpea market, according to a panel of experts.
Argentina produced a measly 52,000 tonnes of the crop, a 65 percent reduction from the previous year, said Navneet Singh Chhabra, founder of Global Garbanzo, a trading company based in India.
The biggest drought in two decades will leave the country with only 40,000 tonnes of exportable supplies versus 165,000 tonnes the previous year, he told delegates attending the Global Pulse Confederation’s Pulses 2.0 conference.
Russia produced 225,000 tonnes, down from 350,000 tonnes the previous year. Total supply has been reduced by 30 to 35 percent.
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The Black Sea country is expected to export 205,000 tonnes, down from 315,000 tonnes the previous year.
Deepak Rawat, senior trader with Marina Commodities in Canada, said India will be Russia’s top customer.
“We feel a great shortage in India, which is quite evident in the prices,” he said.
Desi chickpea prices in India jumped 30 percent in recent months.
“Man, this is madness,” said Rawat.
“A giant elephant has woken up.”
Mexico also had a disappointing crop. Growers harvested 101,000 tonnes, down from 166,000 tonnes last year and 305,000 tonnes the year before that.
The country is forecast to export 142,000 tonnes, down from 160,000 tonnes the previous year.
Exports are not dropping too much due to a hefty carryout of 86,000 tonnes from the 2019-20. However, carryout is expected to fall to 25,000 tonnes by the end of this year, said Chhabra.
Joel Valenzuela, general director of JOVA, a Mexican trading firm, indicated that exports may be lower than what Chhabra is suggesting.
Shipments have averaged less than 10,000 tonnes per month the last six months compared to the usual volume of 15,000 tonnes.
He expects a big increase in chickpea plantings this winter because the Mexican government has eliminated support for corn farmers. However, there will be zero carryout from the 2020-21 crop.
Turkey harvested an estimated 210,000 tonnes of kabulis, down from 300,000 tonnes the previous year.
Chhabra said there should be good demand for Turkish production in Pakistan and the European Union due to reduced competition from Argentina.
Turkey is forecast to export 101,000 tonnes, down from 127,000 tonne the previous year.
Carryout will fall to 22,000 tonnes from 102,000 tonnes last year.
The Canadian government is estimating 239,000 tonnes of production and another 250,000 tonnes of 2019-20 carryout.
Chhabra said that is a far cry from the trade’s estimates of 200,000 tonnes of production and 150,000 tonnes of carryout.
“There’s a big difference,” he said.
Ali Siddiqui, export partner at the Northern Chickpeas Alliance, said Saskatchewan had a very poor quality crop last year and Statistics Canada is underestimating how much of it ended up in feed or pet food.
“We do not have 250,000 tonnes of carryout, folks,” he said.
Siddiqui said Canadian farmers are in no hurry to sell at today’s prices because they are making more money on lentils and other crops. When they do decide to sell they will be marketing a top-notch crop.
“The weather god has given us really beautiful quality,” he said.
The United States had 176,000 tonnes of production to add to 196,000 tonnes of carryout. It is forecast to export 150,000 tonnes, which is about normal.
Chhabra said there was less production and negligible carry-in in Spain, France, Italy, Ukraine and Bulgaria. That entire region usually contributes 200,000 to 250,000 tonnes of exports. This year it will be half of that.
Pakistan is the world’s largest importer of kabuli chickpeas. It is forecast to buy 302,000 tonnes in 2020, which is about the same as last year.
The country is expected to import 121,000 tonnes from Russia as a replacement for desi chickpeas because Russian kabulis are so much cheaper.
Zain Salim Maniya, head of pulse sales for Midtrans Foods in Pakistan, said imports of Russian kabulis will likely slow in the coming months because the country recently imported 150,000 tonnes of desi chickpeas.
Pakistan is also expected to import 169,000 tonnes of kabulis from other destinations.
“Turkey is the number one preferred origin we like to buy from,” said Maniya.
They pay a $20 per tonne premium for eight to nine millimetre kabulis from Turkey because buyers like the quality of the product compared to U.S. and Canadian origin.
However, Pakistan needs to import 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes per month and Turkey won’t be able to supply that volume on its own.
India is usually a net exporter of kabuli chickpeas, but farmers only harvested 373,000 tonnes this year, a 30 percent drop from the previous year.
However, domestic consumption is forecast to fall to 265,000 tonnes in 2020-21, down from 420,000 tonnes the previous year because of COVID-19 restrictions surrounding events like festivals and weddings.
Desi chickpea prices are extremely high in India, which is supporting kabuli prices as well.
Rajat Sarda, director of Rajat Agro in India, said chickpea growing regions in the country have received ample moisture, so he anticipates a big increase in acres of both desi and kabuli types this winter.
The country is almost out of stock of seven to nine millimetre kabulis.
Chhabra said the entire kabuli market will be watching to see if India drops its import tariff on chickpeas.
The other major market factor to keep an eye on is a potential second wave of COVID-19. Kabuli chickpeas are largely consumed at festivals and weddings in countries like Indian and Pakistan.
