Most pea traders and analysts are forecasting a Canadian crop in the range of 2.7 to 2.8 million tonnes, but one estimate is far more pessimistic.
Saskatchewan Agriculture said pea yields in the province will amount to only 67 percent of the 10-year average.
That represents a drop to 21 bushels per acre from 31 bu. in a province that grows 77 percent of the country’s pea crop.
Agriculture Canada special crops analyst Stan Skrypetz said if he plugged those numbers into his July 30 production estimate, it would fall to 2.3 million tonnes from 2.7 million tonnes.
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But he’s not ready to drop it by 400,000 tonnes just yet. Skrypetz said while there are some “real junky” crops in the western part of the province, there are also some with good yield potential in the southeast.
“The trick is to figure out how much of each and that’s real difficult to do.”
Saskatchewan Wheat Pool and Xcan Grain Pool Ltd. traders are going with the higher number.
Regardless of tonnage estimates this month, pea production is down substantially from the 3.2 million tonnes expected at the beginning of July. That is helping prices.
“A year ago there was a sharp drop in prices once the harvest started. This year it dropped a bit but not nearly as much,” said Skrypetz.
Sask Pool pulse crop manager Don Crane thinks prices for yellow peas are too high. Domestic processors are paying more than buyers in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan are willing to shell out.
“The Canadian processors are far, far ahead of what the market is.”
He also thinks that price could drop if Canada harvests the record 515,000 tonne chickpea crop that is forecast. India will substitute yellow peas for chickpeas only when the supply of chickpeas is low and the price is too high.
Another factor to consider is that while Canada’s pea production will likely be down at least five percent, the European Union’s output will be up 10 percent from last year. Skrypetz said the latest numbers from Europe peg the crop at just under 3.4 million tonnes, up from just under 3.1 million tonnes a year ago.
Crane said one of the main reasons for the increase is that Germany had a large, good quality pea crop.
“They’re shipping into some of the markets that we would traditionally go into in north Europe.”
But Rob Tisdale said what’s happening in Europe has little impact on Canadian prices.
“The pea price or the pea bid in Canada is what we call a made-in-Canada price. We know it does not reflect offshore business or values,” said the Xcan trader.
“Right now all anybody cares about is what’s going to get in the bin when harvest really hits here and how’s the farmer going to react to it.”
That is because Canada is the world’s largest exporter of peas and has a considerable impact on prices.
The domestic harvest is what traders will focus on, not things like a report of a disastrous wheat crop in Spain, which is Canada’s biggest feed pea customer.
“If there’s a problem with the Spanish wheat crop it’s like – whatever,” said Tisdale.
Saskatchewan Agriculture said 30 percent of the province’s peas have already been combined. Yellow peas are the first to come off the fields.
Crane has heard reports of a lot of cracked seed coats and some immature seeds. The results should get better as time progresses.
“This earlier stuff is mostly in the drier areas where it matured faster.”
Once the green pea harvest gets under way, he expects to see many bleached seeds.
