Canadian pulse crop analysts and brokers are interpreting poor monsoon
rains in India as a bullish sign for domestic markets.
But a broker familiar with the Indian subcontinent says people here are
a little too excited about what is happening over there.
“I think it’s a bit overblown,” said Ashok Fogla, president of A.F.
International Corp., an American brokerage firm that specializes in
pulse trade with Asia.
Statistics released by the government of India show that between June 1
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and July 31, the country has received only 70 percent of its normal
rainfall. India’s meteorological department rates 26 of 36 subdivisions
as having deficient or scanty rainfall.
Fogla points out that the monsoon season runs from the beginning of
June to late August or early September. While the rains have been poor
during the early part of the monsoon season, what happens at the end is
far more crucial.
“My contention is that I think it’s too early. It’s like saying in
November you don’t have any snow cover on the ground so your crop is
going to be in trouble.”
India has two growing seasons – one in the summer and one in the
winter. The summer crop is seeded shortly after the monsoon season
starts. Only two pulses, mung beans and black matpe, are grown in the
summer. Farmers usually harvest three to four million tonnes of those
crops.
It’s during the winter months that 70 percent of India’s pulse crop is
grown. The crop is planted in October and eight or nine million tonnes
of pulses are harvested in March or April. This is the crop that
Canadian farmers want to watch.
Fogla said the summer crop is undeniably drought stressed, but if the
rains come at the end of the monsoon season the winter crop could be
fine.
“If it rains well in August and early September, the farmer is going to
plant the hell out of the winter crop.”
The government of India also has plenty of stocks of rice and wheat on
hand to feed the nation in the event of a crop failure, he said.
While the situation in India is far from resolved, it is clearer in
Australia, which is Canada’s main pulse competitor. Fogla said pulse
production will undoubtedly be down in that country due to drought.
Pulses are grown in five provinces in Australia. In Western Australia,
where production is usually around 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes, the drought
has had a devastating effect.
“That crop is more or less toasted,” said Fogla.
In South Australia, the crop is in good shape. That region usually
produces 300,000-500,000 tonnes of pulses, including 250,000 tonnes of
field peas.
In Victoria, where field peas, lentils and broad beans are grown, and
Queensland, where production is predominantly chickpeas, it’s a mixed
bag, said Fogla. But in New South Wales, a big chickpea production
area, there is absolutely no rain.
“The crop either didn’t get planted or got decimated.”
Fogla said a good Australian chickpea crop would yield 400,000 tonnes.
This one looks like it will be in the range of 75,000-170,000 tonnes.
What happens to the rest of Australia’s pulses will depend on how much
rain falls in the next six to eight weeks.
