Old crop canola fell again on Friday while new crop edged higher, closing just 60 cents shy of $500 per tonne.
Weaker soy oil weighed on old crop canola. Traders narrowed what had been a wide spread between old and new crop.
The lightly traded May contract fell $17.20 as its expiry date approaches.
Most-traded July fell $5 a tonne to $514.70.
New crop November rose 40 cents to close at $499.40.
Over the week the July contract fell $5.30 per tonne.
The November contract rose $7.30.
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The old crop contract adjusted back this week after last week’s rally sparked by worries of tight old crop stocks.
New crop marched higher on worries about the cool, wet spring that is delaying field work and seeding.
While the U.S. Midwest is expecting dry, warm weather in the first half of May, the Prairies could get more moisture in the first 10 days of the month.
WEATHER
The central part of the United States could be in for a weekend of wild weather with a clash of cold and warm systems delivering snow and freezing temperatures in the southern Plains winter wheat region and heavy rain in parts of the Midwest,
But the systems have been in the forecast all week and the markets have mostly already adjusted for the risk.
Warmer, drier weather next week in the Midwest should lessen the effect on the seeding campaign.
The frost threat helped Kansas wheat rally back from a multi-month low hit on Monday and it is now trading around the same level it was through most of late March and early April.
DEMAND
Canola crushers had a second week of below average production but the numbers were a bit improved from the previous week.
The crush was 182,001 tonnes, up 5.2 percent from the week before but only 85 percent of capacity, shy of the year’s average of just over 90 percent.
The total crush to date is 6.9 million tonnes, up from 6.05 million at the same time last year.
The crush is still comfortably on track to meet or exceed the Agriculture Canada full-year forecast of nine million tonnes.
EXPORTS
Canola exports were a poor 175,800 tonnes in week 38 to April 23, down from 205,400 tonnes the week before.
However, even this slower pace is easily enough to keep exports on a pace needed to match or exceed Agriculture Canada’s forecast of 10 million tonnes of exports for 2016-17.
While canola exports were off a bit, the overall export number for all crops was a strong 1.12 million tonnes for the week.
Wheat movement was exceptionally strong at 391,100 tonnes, up from 275,100 the week before.
And durum exports were also exceptional, with 176,600 loaded, up from 94,500 the week before.
There was also good movement of barley and peas.
Vancouver cleared a strong 13 ships in week 38 and three ships were cleared from Prince Rupert.
The line up of ships at Vancouver remained large though, at 26 vessels, down just one from the previous week.
Only two vessels were in the line up at Prince Rupert.
EUROPEAN WEATHER AFFECTS RAPESEED
A dry spring in western Europe was already stressing rapeseed and now some frosts have likely hurt production.
Today Strategie Grains cut its forecast for European Union rapeseed production to 21.4 million tonnes, down 340,000 from the last outlook.
Another analyst, ODA Groupe, pegs the crop at 20.5 million.
Another frost is expected on Sunday.
Last year’s crop was a four-year low at 20 million tonnes.
Dry, cold weather is also affecting the soft wheat crop in France.
Farming agency FranceAgriMer estimated that 78 percent of soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition as of April 24, compared with 85 percent a week earlier.
France has experienced one of the driest Aprils in the last 50 years, according to public weather service Meteo France. This has exacerbated a rain deficit in some northern areas after a very dry winter.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 36 cents to US$49.33 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US73.22 cents, down from 73.43 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3657.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 79.66 points, or 0.51 percent, to 15,586.13.
A report today showed U.S. economy grew at its weakest pace in three years in the first quarter.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 40.82 points, or 0.19 percent, to close at 20,940.51, the S&P 500 lost 4.57 points, or 0.19 percent, to 2,384.2 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.33 points, or 0.02 percent, to 6,047.61.
For the week, the TSX Composite slipped 0.2 percent, the Dow rose 1.9 percent, the S&P gained 1.5 percent and the Nasdaq rose 2.3 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2017 512.10 -17.20 -3.25%
Canola Jul 2017 514.70 -5.00 -0.96%
Canola Nov 2017 499.40 +0.40 +0.08%
Canola Jan 2018 503.40 +0.40 +0.08%
Canola Mar 2018 507.70 +0.30 +0.06%
Milling Wheat May 2017 240.00 +2.00 +0.84%
Milling Wheat Jul 2017 241.00 +2.00 +0.84%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 238.00 +3.00 +1.28%
Durum Wheat May 2017 272.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2017 272.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 264.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2017 945.25 -0.50 -0.05%
Soybeans Jul 2017 956.25 -1.00 -0.10%
Soybeans Aug 2017 958.25 -1.00 -0.10%
Soybeans Sep 2017 954.75 -1.00 -0.10%
Soybeans Nov 2017 953.25 -1.25 -0.13%
Soybeans Jan 2018 960.25 -1.25 -0.13%
Soybean Meal May 2017 311.70 +1.20 +0.39%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 315.80 +1.00 +0.32%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 317.00 +1.20 +0.38%
Soybean Oil May 2017 31.45 -0.25 -0.79%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 31.71 -0.25 -0.78%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 31.81 -0.25 -0.78%
Corn May 2017 358.00 -4.00 -1.10%
Corn Jul 2017 366.50 -2.75 -0.74%
Corn Sep 2017 374.25 -2.00 -0.53%
Corn Dec 2017 385.00 -1.75 -0.45%
Corn Mar 2018 394.75 -1.75 -0.44%
Oats May 2017 237.50 +14.50 +6.50%
Oats Jul 2017 228.00 +5.50 +2.47%
Oats Sep 2017 224.00 +4.50 +2.05%
Oats Dec 2017 220.25 +4.50 +2.09%
Oats Mar 2018 226.25 +4.00 +1.80%
Wheat May 2017 418.50 +5.00 +1.21%
Wheat Jul 2017 432.25 +1.00 +0.23%
Wheat Sep 2017 445.75 +1.25 +0.28%
Wheat Dec 2017 468.25 +0.75 +0.16%
Wheat Mar 2018 487.00 +0.50 +0.10%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2017 540.75 +0.75 +0.14%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 554.75 +1.50 +0.27%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 561.00 +1.75 +0.31%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 568.75 +3.50 +0.62%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 576.00 +3.25 +0.57%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 424.75 +4.00 +0.95%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 437.25 +3.50 +0.81%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 452.75 +3.25 +0.72%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 477.00 +3.00 +0.63%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 492.25 +2.50 +0.51%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 138.00 +2.40 +1.77%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 124.02 +2.49 +2.05%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 120.05 +2.27 +1.93%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 149.55 +2.98 +2.03%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 154.70 +4.35 +2.89%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 154.65 +3.88 +2.57%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 66.98 +0.08 +0.12%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 74.00 +1.18 +1.62%
Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 75.22 +1.19 +1.61%
