May canola fell 4.2 pct this week but demand is strong

May canola futures fell $21.20 a tonnes over the week, on general veg oil crop weakness, technical weakness and talk of order cancelations.

But crush and export statistics show demand is still strong and this price collapse could prove to be over done.

Weather in Western Canada is expected to be mostly dry and warmer than normal for the next week and the harvest of crop that was not combined last fall is underway.

In China, borrowing rates surged last week to the highest level since 2014, leading to talk of a credit crunch that could make it more difficult for importers to get the financing they need.

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May canola closed at $482.50, down $5.80 or 1.19 percent on the day. Over the week May fell 4.2 percent

November today fell $7.20 or 1.47 percent to $482.60.

CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK’S VIDEO CROP MARKET UPDATE

Over the week, November fell $7.20 or 1.5 percent.

While the oilseed price fell, its demand picked up.

CRUSHING RECORD

Canola crush posted a one-week record of 208,268 tonnes in the week to March 22, up 15.2 percent from the week before. That represented 97.4 percent of capacity.

The crush to date has now topped six million tonnes, up 13.3 percent over last year at this point.

EXPORTS RECOVER

Canola exports in week 33 to March 19 rose to 256,000, up about 106,000 tonnes from the weak performance of the previous week when only 150,400 tonnes moved. The week before that was also slow when only 190,700 tonnes were exported.

Still, canola exports for the crop year so far are up 11.6 percent at 6.85 million tonnes.

OTHER CROP EXPORTS

With the improved movement of canola, the total movement of all grains out of the West Coast improved greatly in week 33 to almost 800,000 tonnes, from 624,400 tonnes the week before.

Shipments the previous two weeks had been reduced by weather problems.

Wheat exports for week 33 were 238,600 tonnes, down from 284,300 tonnes the previous week.

Barley shipments were 89,400 tonnes in the week, up from 1,800 tonnes the previous week.

WEST COAST STATUS

Vancouver cleared 11 ships in week 33, said the weekly report from Quorum Corp., federally appointed grain movement monitor.

The report revised the week 32 report to say that 11 ships were cleared, up one from the original report.

The number of ships in the line up was 31, down from an unusually large 36 the week before and similar to the line up last year at this time, but still higher than normal.

At Prince Rupert three vessels were cleared, up from two the previous week. The vessel line up at Prince Rupert fell to six from eight the previous week.

US MARKETS

May soybeans fell 1.54 percent today on the big South American crop and expectations of record large U.S. soy acres this spring. On the week, soybeans fell 2.5 percent.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised its outlook for Argentina’s 2016-17 soy crop to 56.5 million tonnes from 54.8 million previously, the latest of a series of upgrades to forecasts for harvests in South America, Reuters reported.

Soy oil was hammered almost three percent lower today, but over the week was down only 0.2 percent.

The National Biodiesel Board on Thursday petitioned the U.S. government to impose antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia that it says have flooded the U.S. market, Reuters reported.

Palm oil prices were also lower.

WHEAT

Rain this coming week in the U.S. Plains and Midwest is expected to improve the outlook for the American winter wheat crop.

Today the three wheat contracts all took their own path, but over the week all three were lower.

The Minneapolis May spring wheat contract fell 2.4 percent on the week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 27 cents to US$47.97 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.74 cents, down from 74.90 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3380.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 9.06 points, or 0.06 percent, at 15,442.67.

For the week, the TSX fell 0.3 percent.

U.S. stock markets watched in dismay as the Republicans had to pull their health insurance bill because it did not have the votes to pass in the House of Representatives. But some analysts believe that with the contentious health insurance issue off the table, Congress will be able to turn to legislation such as tax cuts and regulatory reform that will have more unified support among the majority Republicans.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 59.86 points, or 0.29 percent, to end at 20,596.72, the S&P 500 lost 1.98 points, or 0.08 percent, to 2,343.98 and the Nasdaq Composite added 11.05 points, or 0.19 percent, to 5,828.74.

For the week, the Dow fell 1.5 percent, the S&P lost 1.4 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.2 percent.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2017   482.50   -5.80   -1.19%

Canola Jul 2017   489.30   -5.50   -1.11%

Canola Nov 2017   482.60   -7.20   -1.47%

Canola Jan 2018   488.10   -7.20   -1.45%

Canola Mar 2018   492.90   -6.80   -1.36%

 

Milling Wheat May 2017   231.00   -1.00   -0.43%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017   231.00   -2.00   -0.86%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017   226.00   -2.00   -0.88%

 

Durum Wheat May 2017   281.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017   280.00   unch   0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017   268.00   unch   0.00%

 

Barley May 2017   137.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Jul 2017   138.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Oct 2017   140.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 2017   975.75   -15.25   -1.54%

Soybeans Jul 2017   986.25   -15.25   -1.52%

Soybeans Aug 2017   988.50   -15.25   -1.52%

Soybeans Sep 2017   982.00   -14.75   -1.48%

Soybeans Nov 2017   977.00   -14.25   -1.44%

Soybeans Jan 2018   982.50   -14.25   -1.43%

 

Soybean Meal May 2017   318.20   -2.50   -0.78%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   321.40   -2.60   -0.80%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017   322.00   -2.50   -0.77%

 

Soybean Oil May 2017   32.23   -0.99   -2.98%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017   32.49   -0.99   -2.96%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017   32.56   -0.98   -2.92%

 

Corn May 2017   356.25   -0.50   -0.14%

Corn Jul 2017   363.75   -0.75   -0.21%

Corn Sep 2017   371.50   -0.50   -0.13%

Corn Dec 2017   379.50   -0.50   -0.13%

Corn Mar 2018   389.00   unch   0.00%

 

Oats May 2017   246.25   -1.75   -0.71%

Oats Jul 2017   236.25   -1.50   -0.63%

Oats Sep 2017   229.50   -4.00   -1.71%

Oats Dec 2017   229.00   -5.00   -2.14%

Oats Mar 2018   232.00   unch   0.00%

 

Wheat May 2017   424.75   +3.75   +0.89%

Wheat Jul 2017   439.50   +3.50   +0.80%

Wheat Sep 2017   454.50   +3.50   +0.78%

Wheat Dec 2017   473.75   +3.00   +0.64%

Wheat Mar 2018   488.25   +3.00   +0.62%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2017   535.75   -5.00   -0.92%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   542.50   -4.50   -0.82%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017   548.75   -4.75   -0.86%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017   557.75   -5.00   -0.89%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018   568.50   -4.75   -0.83%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   428.00   unch   0.00%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   441.00   +0.25   +0.06%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   456.00   +0.50   +0.11%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   477.75   +0.75   +0.16%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018   493.00   +0.50   +0.10%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017   122.10   +0.32   +0.26%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017   112.85   +0.05   +0.04%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017   107.80   -0.10   -0.09%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017   133.38   -0.32   -0.24%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017   135.58   +0.23   +0.17%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017   133.80   -0.22   -0.16%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017   67.28   -2.07   -2.98%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017   72.22   -1.73   -2.34%

Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017   75.75   -1.85   -2.38%