Canola futures rose for a fourth day on technical factors and spring wheat futures jumped almost two percent on a cut to U.S. ending stocks.
The big news of the day was the USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Traders had expected cuts to wheat, corn and soybean U.S. ending stocks to reflect strong first half exports.
The USDA did cut wheat and corn ending stocks, but left soybeans unchanged, saying that strong competition from South America will constrict American exports in the second half of the crop year.
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Some analysts scratched their heads at this, noting that U.S. soybean exports are already well ahead of last year and also Brazil’s currency, the real, is rallying against the U.S. buck, reducing the competitiveness of Brazilian beans.
CLICK HERE FOR WEEKLY CROP MARKET UPDATE – THE DANGER FACING PULSE EXPORTS
March soybeans fell as low as $10.45 per bushel, but recovered to close at $10.50 ½, down 8 ¼ cents on the day.
March canola was never in negative territory.
March closed at $527.10 per tonne, up $3.10.
New crop November closed at $506.50, up $1.20.
Slow farmer selling and technical momentum supported canola.
WHEAT
USDA surprised the market by trimming U.S. wheat stocks more than expected.
Minneapolis March wheat rose 11 cents to $5.86 ½ per bushel.
“Wheat’s the one on rock-bottom to begin with and you had everybody short so any kind of real or imagined bullish number in wheat is going to get a reaction,” Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading told Reuters.
USDA pegged year-end wheat stocks at 1.139 billion bushels, compared to the range of trade estimates of 1.145-1.211 billion.
It also cut global year-end wheat stocks more than expected, pegging them at 248.61 million tonnes, below the range of estimates of 252-254.7 million.
The global wheat number was down largely because of cuts to the production estimates for India and Kazakhstan. It pegged the 2016 Indian crop at 87 million tonnes, down three million from USDA’s previous estimate and Kazakhstan was cut 1.5 million tonnes to reflect updated government statistics from that country.
Because of the small crop last year, India has imported about five million tonnes of wheat, the most in a decade. Ukraine and Australia have supplied most of the wheat.
The wheat crop now in Indian fields to be harvested this spring is expected to be much better because of a good monsoon.
Corn closed slightly lower. USDA pegged domestic corn ending stocks at 2.32 billion bu., down from 2.355 in January, but within the range of trade expectations.
SOUTH AMERICA
USDA left its Brazil soybean production forecast unchanged at 104 million tonnes.
It dropped its Argentina soybean production estimate by 1.5 million tonnes to 55.5 million reflecting earlier bad weather.
But Argentina’s Rosario grain exchange also issued an updated soy forecast. It sees the crop at 54.8 million tonnes, up from 53.5 million a month ago, citing a recent improvement in the weather.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
U.S. President Trump today said he would propose major tax cuts in a few weeks. This lifted U.S. stock indexes to new record highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 116.93 points, or 0.58 percent, to 20,171.27, the S&P 500 gained 13.11 points, or 0.57 percent, to 2,307.78 and the Nasdaq Composite added 32.73 points, or 0.58 percent, to 5,715.18.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 63.26 points, or 0.41 percent, at 15,617.30.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 66 cents to US$53.00 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.10 cents, up from 76.01 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3141.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Mar 2017 527.10 +3.10 +0.59%
Canola May 2017 535.00 +3.30 +0.62%
Canola Jul 2017 537.70 +2.40 +0.45%
Canola Nov 2017 506.50 +1.20 +0.24%
Canola Jan 2018 510.70 +1.10 +0.22%
Milling Wheat Mar 2017 244.00 +5.00 +2.09%
Milling Wheat May 2017 246.00 +3.00 +1.23%
Milling Wheat Jul 2017 246.00 +3.00 +1.23%
Durum Wheat Mar 2017 293.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2017 296.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2017 295.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2017 135.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2017 137.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 2017 1050.50 -8.25 -0.78%
Soybeans May 2017 1061.50 -7.75 -0.72%
Soybeans Jul 2017 1069.50 -7.25 -0.67%
Soybeans Aug 2017 1066.75 -6.25 -0.58%
Soybeans Sep 2017 1045.75 -4.50 -0.43%
Soybeans Nov 2017 1026.00 -2.25 -0.22%
Soybean Meal Mar 2017 338.40 -2.80 -0.82%
Soybean Meal May 2017 342.60 -2.70 -0.78%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 345.10 -2.50 -0.72%
Soybean Oil Mar 2017 34.67 -0.02 -0.06%
Soybean Oil May 2017 34.95 -0.03 -0.09%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 35.16 -0.05 -0.14%
Corn Mar 2017 369.50 -1.25 -0.34%
Corn May 2017 377.25 -1.25 -0.33%
Corn Jul 2017 384.00 -1.50 -0.39%
Corn Sep 2017 389.75 -1.75 -0.45%
Corn Dec 2017 395.75 -1.75 -0.44%
Oats Mar 2017 254.50 +0.50 +0.20%
Oats May 2017 253.00 +3.00 +1.20%
Oats Jul 2017 251.50 +5.75 +2.34%
Oats Sep 2017 242.50 +4.25 +1.78%
Oats Dec 2017 238.50 +2.25 +0.95%
Wheat Mar 2017 443.50 +11.00 +2.54%
Wheat May 2017 455.25 +11.75 +2.65%
Wheat Jul 2017 467.00 +11.00 +2.41%
Wheat Sep 2017 479.25 +10.00 +2.13%
Wheat Dec 2017 496.00 +9.75 +2.01%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 2017 568.50 +11.00 +1.97%
Spring Wheat May 2017 566.50 +9.25 +1.66%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 567.25 +8.00 +1.43%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 568.00 +6.75 +1.20%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 574.50 +5.75 +1.01%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 451.25 +9.25 +2.09%
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 463.50 +8.75 +1.92%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 475.00 +8.50 +1.82%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 488.75 +8.25 +1.72%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 510.00 +8.00 +1.59%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 117.65 +0.88 +0.75%
Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 114.82 +0.07 +0.06%
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 105.28 +0.03 +0.03%
Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 123.62 +1.32 +1.08%
Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 124.05 +1.08 +0.88%
Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 123.15 +1.15 +0.94%
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 74.22 +0.87 +1.19%
Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 70.78 -0.94 -1.31%
Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 74.80 -0.92 -1.22%
