Crop markets drift on currency fluctuations

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Published: January 31, 2017

Crop futures had little to trade on Tuesday other than a weaker U.S. dollar.

The loonie gained about a half cent as the U.S. dollar weakened against most other currencies.

The stronger loonie weighed down March canola, which fell $3.40 a tonne to $507.50.

But U.S. crop markets perked up a little thanks to the weaker greenback.

Wheat often seems to be the most affected by currency changes and the Chicago market gained the most among grains, climbing 1.6 percent in the March contract. Kansas also edged higher, but Minneapolis was slightly lower.

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Corn and the soy complex were up a tiny amount.

Agriculture Canada issued its first forecast for the 2017-18 crop year. It expects fewer acres seeded to wheat, durum and barley and more to canola, soybeans flax and oats.

It expects a three percent increase in canola acres, but penciled in a trend line yield that is a little lower than the 2016 average. The result is a forecast production of 8.5 million tonnes compared to the official estimate of 8.424 million tonnes for 2016.

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The American dollar fell following comments from President Trump as well as it top trade advisor Peter Navarro that indicate they are trying to “talk down” the U.S. buck and that they think other countries are unfairly weakening their currencies.

The market had been assuming that the U.S. dollar would be strong this year as the U.S. Federal Reserve plans to increase interest rates more than once. But that assumption is now questioned as the new administration keeps talking about an overpriced U.S. dollar.

The weather continues favourable for South American crops. Commodity funds have built their biggest net long position in soybean futures since mid-July.

 

The USDA state wheat condition report issued Monday showed rain in January halted the decline in the health of the crop, which is mostly dormant.

Kansas was 20 percent poor to very poor, 36 percent fair and 44 percent good to excellent.

At the end of the previous month it was 19 percent poor to very poor, 37 percent fair and 44 percent good to excellent.

In Oklahoma wheat was unchanged from the previous month at 17 percent poor to very poor, 50 percent fair and 33 percent good to very good.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 18 cents to US$52.81 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.75 cents, up from 76.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3030.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 19.16 points, or 0.12 percent, at 15,385.96.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 106.9 points, or 0.54 percent, to 19,864.23, the S&P 500 lost 2.02 points, or 0.09 percent, to 2,278.88 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.07 points, or 0.02 percent, to 5,614.79.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2017   507.50   -3.40   -0.67%

Canola May 2017   514.10   -3.60   -0.70%

Canola Jul 2017   517.60   -3.50   -0.67%

Canola Dec 2017   496.00   -3.00   -0.60%

Canola Jan 2018   500.50   -2.60   -0.52%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2017   231.00   -1.00   -0.43%

Milling Wheat May 2017   235.00   -1.00   -0.42%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017   237.00   -1.00   -0.42%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2017   296.00   -2.00   -0.67%

Durum Wheat May 2017   298.00   -3.00   -1.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017   298.00   -9.00   -2.93%

 

Barley Mar 2017   135.00   unch   0.00%

Barley May 2017   137.00   unch   0.00%

Barley Jul 2017   138.00   unch   0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2017   1024.50   +1.75   +0.17%

Soybeans May 2017   1034.25 +1.50   +0.15%

Soybeans Jul 2017   1042.00   +1.50   +0.14%

Soybeans Aug 2017   1039.50   +1.00   +0.10%

Soybeans Sep 2017   1019.50   -1.00   -0.10%

Soybeans Nov 2017   1001.00   -3.00   -0.30%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2017   334.60   +0.20   +0.06%

Soybean Meal May 2017   337.90   +0.40   +0.12%

Soybean Meal Jul 2017   340.10   +0.60   +0.18%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2017   33.85   +0.24   +0.71%

Soybean Oil May 2017   34.14   +0.24   +0.71%

Soybean Oil Jul 2017   34.40   +0.24   +0.70%

 

Corn Mar 2017   359.75   +2.00  +0.56%

Corn May 2017   367.00   +2.00   +0.55%

Corn Jul 2017   373.75   +1.75   +0.47%

Corn Sep 2017   380.50   +1.75   +0.46%

Corn Dec 2017   387.25   +1.75   +0.45%

 

Oats Mar 2017   244.25   +0.50   +0.21%

Oats May 2017   238.75   +0.50   +0.21%

Oats Jul 2017   236.00   +0.25   +0.11%

Oats Sep 2017   233.25   unch   0.00%

Oats Dec 2017   225.75   -0.75   -0.33%

 

Wheat Mar 2017   420.75   +6.75   +1.63%

Wheat May 2017   433.50   +5.25   +1.23%

Wheat Jul 2017   447.25   +4.75   +1.07%

Wheat Sep 2017   462.25   +4.00   +0.87%

Wheat Dec 2017   479.75   +3.00   +0.63%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2017   548.50   -2.75   -0.50%

Spring Wheat May 2017   547.50   -2.00   -0.36%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017   551.00   -1.50   -0.27%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017   554.50   -0.50   -0.09%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017   561.00   unch   0.00%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017   429.50   +3.75   +0.88%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017   442.25   +4.00   +0.91%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017   454.25   +4.00   +0.89%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017   468.75   +4.00   +0.86%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017   490.00   +4.75   +0.98%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017   115.60   -0.58   -0.50%

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017   114.18   -0.64   -0.56%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017   104.20   -0.35   -0.33%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017   122.77   -1.13   -0.91%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017   122.42   -1.13   -0.91%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017   121.32   -0.83   -0.68%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017   69.08   +1.98   +2.95%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017   69.25   +1.03   +1.51%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017   73.98   +1.01   +1.38%

 

 

 

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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