Canola ends week little changed while wheat edges higher

Canola weakened near the end of trade and closed down, just above the $500 per tonne mark on Friday barely changed on the week.

March canola ended at $500.10 per tonnes, down $2.20 on the day, but up $1.80 compared to the previous Friday.

There was a moderate follow through from the modestly bullish USDA reports issued Thursday.

Spring wheat futures led the market higher, climbing about 1.5 percent but Chicago wheat was little changed.

Yesterday the USDA said American winter wheat farmers cut acreage by 10 percent to the lowest level in more than a century.

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But the forecast for large stocks to be carried into the next crop year limited wheat’s gain.

Soybeans rose modestly Friday, following through on gains Thursday after the USDA trimmed its estimate of the 2016 soybean crop and carry out stocks for 2016-17.

Corn futures were little changed.

CANOLA EXPORTS

Canola exports in the week were 177,200 tonnes, said the Canadian Grain Commission, up from just under 100,000 tonnes the previous week.

To date, exports stand at 4.326 million tonnes, almost even with last year’s 4.361 million.

Exports are performing better than the forecast from Agriculture Canada. Its December report said exports would be down seven percent from last year but so far they are almost steady.

CRUSH

Domestic crush is also stronger than forecast.

The weekly crush report from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association showed 171,500 tonnes processed in the week to Jan. 11, down about 14 percent from the previous very strong week.

That represented a capacity use of about 80 percent.

Crush for the year so far is 4.168 million tonnes, up 14.4 percent over last year. Agriculture Canada had forecast a seven percent increase.

ARGENTINA RAIN

More heavy rain is expected in Argentina this weekend, leading to expectations that the seeding window will close with some acres still not planted.

The USDA this week kept its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop at 57 million tonnes, but analysts in Argentina are starting to lower their estimates because of the seeded area reduction.

The combination of dry weather early in the planting season and flooding now could cut the total seeded area by about 1.7 million acres.

If more analysts start to agree, then that will provide support for soybeans, however the impact might be limited by Brazil’s excellent looking soy crop.

EUROPE WHEAT

More freezing temperatures are expected in Europe next week but winter wheat is not expected to be damaged because snow will likely accompany the cold.

U.S. PLAINS RAIN

A large part of the central US is forecast to get freezing rain this weekend.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 64 cents to US$52.37 per barrel. Over the week crude dropped three percent on worries that some countries might not follow the OPEC comitment to cut production. Also, China’s export activity in December was disappointing, leading to worries about the health of the world’s second largest economy.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US76.13 cents, little changed from 76.16 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.3135.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite closed up 77.84 points or 0.5 percent at 15,496.00.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.34 points, or 0.03 percent, to 19,885.66, the S&P 500 gained 4.2 points, or 0.18 percent, to 2,274.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 26.63 points, or 0.48 percent, to 5,574.12.

For the week, the TSX composite was unchanged, the Nasdaq rose one percent, the Dow fell by 0.4 percent and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1 percent.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2017 500.10 -2.20 -0.44%

Canola May 2017 507.10 -2.10 -0.41%

Canola Jul 2017 511.10 -2.10 -0.41%

Canola Nov 2017 492.90 -0.30 -0.06%

Canola Jan 2018 494.70 -0.40 -0.08%

Milling Wheat Mar 2017 243.00 +2.00 +0.83%

Milling Wheat May 2017 243.00 +1.00 +0.41%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 242.00 +2.00 +0.83%

Durum Wheat Mar 2017 317.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2017 320.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 323.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2017 139.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2017 141.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2017 142.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 2017 1042.50 +10.50 +1.02%

Soybeans Mar 2017 1046.25 +6.00 +0.58%

Soybeans May 2017 1055.50 +6.50 +0.62%

Soybeans Jul 2017 1061.50 +6.25 +0.59%

Soybeans Aug 2017 1057.25 +5.75 +0.55%

Soybeans Sep 2017 1037.00 +4.00 +0.39%

Soybean Meal Jan 2017 332.50 +8.30 +2.56%

Soybean Meal Mar 2017 333.90 +6.00 +1.83%

Soybean Meal May 2017 336.40 +6.20 +1.88%

Soybean Oil Jan 2017 35.37 -0.48 -1.34%

Soybean Oil Mar 2017 35.60 -0.47 -1.30%

Soybean Oil May 2017 35.86 -0.47 -1.29%

Corn Mar 2017 358.50 +0.25 +0.07%

Corn May 2017 365.50 +0.75 +0.21%

Corn Jul 2017 372.50 +0.75 +0.20%

Corn Sep 2017 379.50 +0.75 +0.20%

Corn Dec 2017 386.25 +0.25 +0.06%

Oats Mar 2017 242.50 +6.75 +2.86%

Oats May 2017 236.75 +2.00 +0.85%

Oats Jul 2017 238.25 +3.75 +1.60%

Oats Sep 2017 239.25 +4.75 +2.03%

Oats Dec 2017 236.25 +5.25 +2.27%

Wheat Mar 2017 426.00 -0.25 -0.06%

Wheat May 2017 439.75 +0.50 +0.11%

Wheat Jul 2017 454.75 +1.25 +0.28%

Wheat Sep 2017 469.50 +2.00 +0.43%

Wheat Dec 2017 486.00 +2.75 +0.57%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2017 582.75 +8.75 +1.52%

Spring Wheat May 2017 565.75 +5.00 +0.89%

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 559.25 +4.75 +0.86%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 561.50 +4.75 +0.85%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 567.75 +4.25 +0.75%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2017 449.00 +4.25 +0.96%

Hard Red Wheat May 2017 461.00 +4.25 +0.93%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 472.75 +4.00 +0.85%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 485.75 +3.50 +0.73%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 503.75 +4.00 +0.80%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Feb 2017 118.52 +1.05 +0.89%

Live Cattle (P) Apr 2017 117.92 +1.45 +1.24%

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 108.02 +1.19 +1.11%

Feeder Cattle (P) Jan 2017 130.45 +0.13 +0.10%

Feeder Cattle (P) Mar 2017 129.30 +1.55 +1.21%

Feeder Cattle (P) Apr 2017 128.85 +1.55 +1.22%

Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2017 65.60 -0.35 -0.53%

Lean Hogs (P) Apr 2017 69.62 +0.07 +0.10%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 74.48 +0.16 +0.22%

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